The positions of public funds have reached a new high, and the maximum available funds are still about 400 billion yuan. Will the “88% curse” be fulfilled again?
On the evening of January 31, China Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center released the calculation data of the largest available stock buying funds of public offering funds, showing that the largest available stock buying funds of public offering funds in the near future is about 433.5 billion yuan. According to statistics from Tianxiang Investment Consulting, the average position of stock open-end funds reached 90.47% at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, a record high in seven years; the average position of hybrid open-end funds was 74.86%, which was at a relatively high level in more than two years.
The “88% Curse” is here?
With the disclosure of the 2022 quarterly report of public funds that “the curtain has come to an end”, judging from the total data, the overall position of equity funds has hit a record high, and some market participants are worried that the “88% curse” may reappear.
The “88% curse” means that when the position of public funds reaches more than 88%, it often indicates insufficient incremental funds. At this time, the market will usually usher in adjustments, and the market tends to be cautious about the market outlook.
According to statistics from Tianxiang Investment Consulting, the average position of stock open-end funds at the end of the fourth quarter of 2022 reached 90.47%, a record high in seven years, directly catching up with the average position of 90.92% at the end of the first quarter of 2015, compared with the average position at the end of the third quarter of 2022 86.91% has increased significantly, and has broken through the critical line of the “88% curse”; the average position of hybrid open-end funds at the end of the fourth quarter of last year was 74.86%, which is also at a high level for more than two years, only lower than the second half of 2020 The average position at the end of the quarter was 75.26%.
However, the “88% curse” is not very effective. A reporter from China Securities Journal found that in the first quarter of 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index was in a slight consolidation at 3100 points, and the average position of stock-type open-end funds had reached 90.92%. .
Gui Haoming, chief market expert of Shenwan Hongyuan, told a reporter from China Securities Journal that there is a high probability that the “88% curse” will not show up. Although the current public offering funds have a relatively high position, they are relatively concentrated in some early popular sectors and large-cap blue chips. The current hot sectors in the market are not heavy holdings of funds.
“In addition, at the beginning of the year, a certain amount of funds often enter the market through newly issued funds. Once the incremental funds are accelerated, the positions of public funds will decrease, but the specific fundraising situation remains to be seen.” Gui Haoming said.
Northbound funds start the “buy, buy, buy” mode
On the evening of January 31, China Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center released the calculation data of the largest available stock buying funds of public offering funds, showing that the largest available stock buying funds of public offering funds in the near future is about 433.5 billion yuan. This means that even if it is close to “full positions”, there are still more than 400 billion yuan of funds available to buy A shares in public offerings. However, this is not all the funds in the market. Incremental funds, including northbound funds, are increasing inflows.
According to statistics, as of February 1, the net purchase amount of northbound funds this year has reached 148.3 billion yuan, and the purchase transaction amount during this period has exceeded 900 billion yuan. Topping the list, LONGi Green Energy, China Merchants Bank, Wuliangye, Kweichow Moutai, etc. all received a net purchase of about 5 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the industry, northbound funds prefer the new energy track leader with high prosperity and the strong recovery concept based on high-end liquor, as well as non-bank finance, power equipment, food and beverage, non-ferrous metals and other sectors.
(Editor in charge: Ye Jing)
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