The pressure on the supply side has increased sharply, and oil is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term | Soybean Oil_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Hongye Futures Author: Hongye Futures

Research report text

【grease】shock

The blending ratio of EPA in the United States was lower than expected, and the consumer side was negative. International vegetable oils fluctuated and fell. The USDA report has limited adjustments and has limited impact on the market. Russia resumes the Black Sea grain export agreement, and the increase in global oil supply puts pressure on oil. MPOB’s latest report shows that horse palm oil inventories at the end of November fell month-on-month, and the report is bullish.The Malaysian Meteorological Department predicts that there will be heavy rainfall after October. The market is worried that too much rain will affect the output of Malaysian palm oil at the end of the year. BMD grosspalmOil futures fluctuated.

domestic aspectaffected by the vegetable oil on the outer disk, the oil shock on the inner disk is weak.

InventoryThe three major oil stocks totaled 1.8206 million tons, an increase of 2.31% month-on-month, an increase of 0.96% year-on-year, and the same level as the same period last year. %, due to more ships, palm oil inventories have continued to increase in the past 17 weeks, and inventories have reached the highest level in the same period in 5 years; soybean oil inventories were 768,300 tons, up 0.41% month-on-month, lower than the 5-year average, due tosoybeansDue to the delay in arrival at the port, there may be potential pressure on the supply of soybean oil at the end of the year; the inventory of vegetable oil was 192,100 tons, a decrease of 4.29% month-on-month and a decrease of 39.87% year-on-year, and the inventory was at the lowest value in the same period in five years.

As soybeans and rapeseeds arrive in Hong Kong one after another, the pressure on the supply side increases greatly. In addition, the short-term impact of the relaxation of domestic epidemic control on oil is unknown, and oil is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The Fed’s continued interest rate hikes will continue to curb commodities and continue to pay attention to the Black Sea grain exports.

【Oil】cost driven,soybean mealgo higher

The overnight market is closed for holidays.

Soybean meal in the domestic night market opened higher, Masukura went higher; near-month period return and far-month cost drive; the main force opened in May 3882, the highest was 3905, the lowest was 3871, and the latest was 3900, up 1.25%; rapeseed meal followed soybean meal, and soybean meal was mainly driven; The increase in world rapeseed production in 22/23 and the year-on-year increase in rapeseed imports make it weaker than soybean meal; the main force opened at 3145 in May, the highest was 3152, the lowest was 3126, and the latest was 3147, up 1.19%; rapeseed oil opened higher and closed higher; the delivery month is approaching The spot is strong; and under the background of the flood in Malaysia, the short position closing drives the rebound of palm oil; the main force opened at 10270 in May, the highest was 10333, the lowest was 10240, and the latest was 10325, up 1.37%.

Action suggestion: There is too much rapeseed oil in two meals.

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