Source: Hongyuan Futures Author: Hongyuan Futures
Research report text
Information
1. According to Ukrainian customs data, as of December 28, Ukraine has exported nearly 8.2 million tons of wheat in 2022/23, a decrease of 48% compared with the same period last year; the export volume of barley was 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 69% year-on-year;cornThe export volume was 12.2 million tons, which was 18% higher than the 10.3 million tons in the same period last year. 22 million tonnes of cereals have been exported this season, 30 percent lower than the same period last year.
2. According to the data reported by the analysis agency SovEcon, Russia’s corn production is expected to be raised to 13.7 million tons in 2022/23, which is higher than the previous forecast of 13.1 million tons, but lower than the original forecast of 15.5 million tons and lower than that in 2021/22. The record production of 15.2 million tons. In mid-November, Russia’s corn harvest progress was only 56%, lower than the average progress of 83% in the past four years, the slowest harvest progress since 2017; as of mid-December, the corn harvest progress increased to 79%.
3. According to the news quoted by JC1, COFCO Corporation and China Grain Storage Group Co., Ltd. cooperated to form China Enterprise United Grain Reserve Co., Ltd., aiming to better manage China’s national grain reserve.
4. According to data reported by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, as of December 21, Argentine farmers had pre-sold 6.74 million tons of 2022/23 corn, an increase of 115,000 tons from a week ago, lower than the 12.98 million tons in the same period last year, and 77,000 tons in the previous week. 10,000 tons; Argentine farmers also sold 43.63 million tons of 2021/22 corn, 806,000 tons more than a week ago, down from 46.49 million tons in the same period last year and 718,000 tons the previous week.
summary
1. CBOT corn futures prices were mixed. The benchmark period closed down by about 0.4%, and the monthly contracts fell by 3.25 cents to up by 1 cent. Among them, the March contract closed down by 3.25 cents to close at 679.50 cents/ For bushels, the May contract closed 2.50 cents lower at 679 cents per bushel, and the July contract closed 2 cents lower at 672.75 cents per bushel.
On the demand side, the overall demand is still weak, and the ethanol production data is lower than market expectations. However, the market has expectations for China’s demand prospects. In addition, the dry weather in South America may affect the corn production in Brazil and Argentina. It is expected that the CBOT corn futures price will run at a high level.
2. The domestic corn spot market is running weakly, the market is more pessimistic, and the purchase and sales are light. The price of Dalian corn futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The main contract 03 was operating above 2800 points. It closed up 0.32% in late trading. Compared with the previous trading day, there was an increase of 2,493 hands, and the turnover was 348,981 hands.
Consumption is sluggish in stages, feed and deep-processing enterprises have slow demand for raw material procurement, and farmers have recently increased their grain sales, and the corn supply and demand pattern is relatively loose; the market has broken through the previous pressure level, and it is expected that the short-term will be dominated by shocks and rebounds, but the magnitude of the rebound limited.
3.starchThe overall spot price is weak, and the futures price fluctuates within a narrow range with corn. The main 03 contract closed up 0.14% in late trading, with an opening price of 2943, a closing price of 2939, a highest price of 2967, a lowest price of 2922, and a settlement price of 2940. Compared with the previous transaction The daily increase was 5 points, the open interest was 164,955 lots, a decrease of 9,998 lots from the previous trading day, and the trading volume was 129,988 lots.
The delivery of downstream deep-processing products is slow, the operating rate of enterprises is stagnant, and the quotation of starch has fallen with the cost of raw materials. At the same time, the improvement of logistics conditions will make the supply continue to rise. However, the current terminal consumption is sluggish, and relevant enterprises have insufficient new orders. In addition, the inventory pressure still exists, or it will limit the rebound on the disk.
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