Research report text
【Rebar: Short-term high callback, thread is still bullish in the medium term]
On Monday, the thread futures 2305 contract fell back from a high level, and the trend was volatile. The continued favorable macro policies boosted market sentiment. After the continuous rise in futures prices, the sentiment began to stabilize. In the spot market, the price of billet in Tangshan is 3740, an increase of 20 from the previous month, and the national thread price is 4053, an increase of 55 from the previous month.
On the macro level, on December 6, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study economic work in 2023. The meeting pointed out that next year we will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and give full play to the basic role of consumption and the key role of investment. The joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council has optimized and implemented the new ten new measures for epidemic prevention and control.
In terms of industry, the weekly thread output increased, and the apparent demand fell. The thread output was 2.88 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons; in terms of demand, the table demand was 2.77 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons. The national building materials social inventory increased, the factory warehouse was flat, the thread factory warehouse was 1.82 million tons, a decrease of 00,000 tons, the social warehouse was 3.66 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons, and the total inventory was 5.48 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons.
On the whole, the domestic real estate policy continues to be positive, and the epidemic policy is rapidly optimized. The main factors restricting the building materials market, the epidemic and the real estate policy, have turned. The midline remains bullish.
Operation suggestion:Go long on dips
【iron ore: Iron ore has entered the adjustment stage, and the market needs to digest the previous increase]
The DCE iron ore futures index contract closed at 809 on Monday, down 11.5 points. The CFR price of imported PB powder announced by Mysteel is 110, down 2.2 from the previous trading day; the price of PB powder at Qingdao port is 820; 66% fine powder in Tangshan, Hebei is 1020, up 20; The settlement price of Ann is 3740, the settlement price of Lulong in Qinhuangdao is 3740, and the transaction price of traders including tax is 3810.
The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 13384.62, an increase of 106.81 from the previous month; the average daily port volume was 303.25, an increase of 3.68. From December 5 to December 11, the total amount of arrivals at 47 ports in China was 25.102 million tons, an increase of 1.254 million tons from the previous month; The total volume of arrivals from China’s 45 ports was 24.084 million tons, an increase of 898,000 tons from the previous month; the total volume of arrivals from the six northern ports was 11.299 million tons, a decrease of 1.748 million tons from the previous month.
The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 75.89%, an increase of 0.29% from last week, and an increase of 7.75% from last year; A decrease of 1.30%, a year-on-year decrease of 57.14%; the average daily output of molten iron was 2.2116 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16,500 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 224,600 tons.
The total stock of iron ore imported by steel mills across the country is 91.8169 million tons, an increase of 335,600 tons from the previous month; the daily consumption of imported ore in the current sample steel mills is 2.7437 million tons, a decrease of 23,600 tons from the previous month, and the inventory consumption ratio is 33.46, an increase of 0.41 days from the previous month . Last week, the total output of iron ore fine powder of 30 external dressing plants across the country was 676,100 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons or 5.96% week-on-week.
At present, the output of molten iron has decreased slightly, and steel mills have a slow replenishment demand. However, after the sharp rise in the previous period and the current low profitability of steel mills, steel mills need to digest the previous increase in ore prices. At present, iron ore has entered the adjustment stage, more orders can take profit, and a small amount can be tested short.
Operation suggestion:The market trend is adjusted, long orders are taken, and a small amount can be tested for short positions.
Sina Statement: This news is reproduced from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, which does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP