Original Title: The year-on-year increase in house prices in first-tier cities continues to lead Shanghai’s announcement of water price increase plans | Finance 6:00 pm
economic news
China’s economic recovery slows down in July
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that1-7In September, the national fixed asset investment increased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate narrowed by 2.3 percentage points compared with the previous six months. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods rose 8.5% year-on-year, 3.6 percentage points lower than that in June; the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate narrowed 1.9 percentage points from June. None of the above three indicators were as expected.
The second-hand housing market continues to decline
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that in July, the popularity of the second-hand housing market in the country continued to decline. Among the 70 cities monitored by the Bureau of Statistics, second-hand housing prices in only 41 cities rose month-on-month, the number being the least in a single month during the year, and it was the fourth consecutive month of contraction. From a year-on-year perspective, the growth of second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities is significantly ahead of other cities. Among the 70 cities, second-hand house prices rose the most year-on-year in Guangzhou, with an increase of 12.2% over the same period last year, followed by Beijing with an increase of 10.7%, and the third was Shanghai with an increase of 10.3%.
Central bank shrinks sequel to MLF
The People’s Bank of China launched a 600 billion one-year mid-term lending facility (MLF) operation on Monday, partially hedging the 700 billion MLF due this month, and the interest rate remains at 2.95%, which has remained unchanged for 17 consecutive months. Regarding the reduction of MLF, the People’s Bank of China stated in the announcement that this is mainly due to the fact that financial institutions can use part of the liquidity released by the July reduction of the deposit reserve ratio to return the MLF due in August.
Shanghai plans to raise water prices
According to Shangguan reports, the Shanghai Development and Reform Commission has formed a new round of water price adjustment plans after in-depth research and repeated demonstrations. It plans to hold a residents hearing on August 31 to further listen to social opinions and suggestions. The plan proposes to adjust the water price standard of the residents’ ladder: the comprehensive water price of the first ladder is adjusted from the current 3.45 yuan per cubic meter to 4.09 yuan, of which the water supply price is 2.27 yuan per cubic meter, and the sewage treatment fee to be paid is 1.82 yuan per cubic meter. The second-tier comprehensive water price was adjusted from the current 4.83 yuan per cubic meter to 5.72 yuan, and the third-tier comprehensive water price was adjusted from the current 5.83 yuan per cubic meter to 8.63 yuan.
The registration conditions for Tianjin college entrance examination are adjusted to “household registration + student registration”
According to CCTV news, the Tianjin Municipal Education Commission issued a notice on Monday that starting from the registration for the general college entrance examination in 2022 (early November 2021), the registration requirements for the college entrance examination in Tianjin will be adjusted from a single “household registration” requirement to a “household registration + school registration” requirement. All districts and schools in Tianjin shall follow the principle of “identity of status and follow-up of status”, further strengthen the management and supervision of the review of ordinary high school students’ student status, strictly regulate the review of changes in student status such as transfer, suspension, and withdrawal, and review student status every semester. Ensure that the procedures for the change of student status are complete and that the basic student information and student status change information are accurate.
Guangdong Province encourages construction companies to IPO and issue bonds for financing
The General Office of the Guangdong Provincial Government issued a notice on Monday to support the promotion of eligible construction companies to list and issue bonds, and encourage local governments to subsidize listed local construction companies. The notice also stated that vigorously develop green finance, provide financing docking services such as green credit and green bonds to energy-saving buildings, green buildings, and construction projects using smart construction and new building industrialization methods, and encourage insurance funds to support the construction of related projects or provide credit enhancement measures.
Finance will continue to support the technological innovation of new energy vehicles
According to the “Shanghai Securities News”, the Ministry of Finance disclosed in a batch of replies to some of the recommendations of the Fourth Session of the 13th National People’s Congress that it is leading the drafting of the “Guidelines on Financial Support for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality” “Opinions”, actively build a fiscal and taxation policy system that effectively promotes green and low-carbon development, and guide and drive more policies and social funds to support green and low-carbon development. Among them, the central government will continue to vigorously support scientific research institutes to carry out technological innovation in the field of new energy vehicles.
Financial opinion
CITIC Securities: The central bank may cut the RRR in the fourth quarter to hedge economic downside risks
CITIC Securities released a research report stating that in July, affected by many disturbance factors such as floods and repeated epidemics, the downward pressure on economic growth has increased. The growth rate of industrial added value in July and the two-year compound growth rate of fixed asset investment and social consumption all declined to varying degrees from June. It is expected that subsequent monetary and fiscal policies will be moderately exerted. In terms of fiscal policy, August is about to usher in the largest number of new special bond issuances during the year, and it is expected that the subsequent months will accelerate the progress of budgetary investment and the issuance of local government bonds. In terms of monetary policy, it is expected that the central bank may adopt a replacement or targeted RRR cut to hedge risks in the fourth quarter, and form effective support for the economy as a whole.
Chen Xing: Real estate regulation will not relax
Chen Xing, chief macro analyst at Zhongtai Securities, pointed out that based on past experience, it is rare that the growth rates of exports, real estate investment, and infrastructure investment have fallen at the same time. Over-reliance on real estate makes it impossible to look at new issues from the old perspective. In the short term, the impact of the slowdown in real estate investment growth on economic growth is relatively controllable, and the need for relaxation of regulatory policies is not strong. In the medium and long term, with the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the slowdown of urbanization, my country’s real estate sales may be close to the limit. In the context of the gradual disappearance of lipsticks among young people in my country, if we continue to over-stimulate real estate, we will in fact overdraw future demand. my country’s real estate market is currently more embodied in structural contradictions. How to make the unbalanced structure return to equilibrium is the key to solving the housing problem. Therefore, the policy control thinking has shifted from the past emphasis on “short-term stimulus on the demand side” to the “long-term mechanism on the supply side”.
Financial data
The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July rose slightly by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month
The National Bureau of Statistics released news on Monday that in July, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns was 5.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. According to the Bureau of Statistics, affected by the graduation season of college students, generally speaking, the unemployment rate will rise by a relatively large margin between June and July. But this year, compared with July and June, the increase in unemployment rate was lower than the level before the epidemic, indicating that the overall employment situation has remained stable. Among them, the unemployment rate of 25-59 year-old employment subjects was 4.2%, the same as last month.
The Shanghai stock index rose 0.03%, and the yuan rose 74 points against the dollar
The stock market closed, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3,517.34 points, up 0.03%; Shenzhen Component Index reported 14,693.74 points, down 0.71%; ChiNext Index reported 3301.39 points, down 1.31%. On the disk, sectors such as hydrogen energy, MCU chips, and medical beauty were among the top gainers, and sectors such as salt lake lithium extraction, rare earth permanent magnets, and titanium dioxide were among the top decliners. Onshore RMB closed at 6.4756 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 74 basis points from the previous trading day. Today, the central parity of the renminbi was quoted at 6.4717, an increase of 82 points.
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