by Gaia Pelosi
March 15 marked the thirteenth anniversary of the start of the Syrian civil war. In fact, in 2011, the revolution against the regime of Bashar al Assad, which involved people from different social classes and ethnic groups, was violently repressed by the government. In a recent statement, the United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, urged all parties involved to “do everything necessary to reach a genuine and credible political solution”, underlining the importance of “protecting civilians”. Guterres also highlighted that arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, sexual and gender-based violence, torture and other human rights violations continue to constitute a significant obstacle to achieving sustainable peace in Syria.
The outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011
Bashar al Assad assumed the presidency in 2000, when he succeeded his father Hafez. Even before the onset of the conflict, many Syrian citizens complained about the high unemployment rate, widespread corruption and lack of political freedom in the country. However, the situation became more complicated when, in March 2011, pro-democracy demonstrations broke out in the southern city of Deraa in the wake of the Arab Spring, which arose across much of the Arab world. The Syrian government, however, promptly tries to suppress popular dissent by force: in response, protests arise throughout the country calling for President Assad’s resignation. The violence of the protests escalated rapidly, leading Syria, in just a few months, into one of the bloodiest civil wars of the twenty-first century. As time passes, however, the conflict evolves from a civil war to a complex series of overlapping wars fought simultaneously between regional and international powers. Foreign powers are in fact starting to take a stand, sending money and weapons: Russia and Iran emerge as the main supporters of the government, while Turkey, the Western powers and several Gulf Arab states have supported the opposition during the course of the conflict . The situation becomes further complicated when extremist jihadist organizations, such as the Islamic State group (ISIS) and al-Qaeda, intervene to pursue their objectives. This greatly alarmed the international community which immediately considered them the greatest threat. Finally, the third dimension of the conflict is represented by the Syrian Kurds who desire the right to self-government and independence and who, during the war in Syria, took on a crucial role in the fight against ISIS.
Control of Syria today: areas and actors involved
Last March 15, thousands of people filled the streets of the northwestern area of Syria, controlled by various rebel factions but mainly by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, affiliated to al-Qaeda, which controls the city of Idlib . Protesters gathered not only to mark the anniversary of the war against Assad, but also to demonstrate against the leader of the HTS group, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. More than 4.1 million civilians live in this area, at least half of whom have been displaced at least once since the conflict began. Civilians in these areas lack resources to move elsewhere, unable to seek asylum in Turkey, and subject to persecution if they attempt to move to government-controlled areas. According to the UN COI’s August 2023 report, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham continues to arbitrarily detain activists, journalists and civilians expressing critical views. Over time, the Syrian government has reconquered the most important cities, but a large part of the territory, located in northeast Syria, is under the control of predominantly Kurdish forces. In fact, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition brings together militiamen from the Kurdish YPG and formations made up of local Arab tribes who control the region, often fighting among themselves. Last August, clashes between the SDF and the Arab-led Military Council in Deir-al-Zour had serious repercussions on civilians, with the OHCHR documenting the killing of at least 23 civilians. Finally, the area with the greatest Turkish activity is the one in the north of the country, where the Free Syrian Army and a large number of Turkish forces are present.
Syria today: consequences and prospects
Thirteen years of war have devastated Syria’s civilian infrastructure and services, with serious consequences for access to healthcare, electricity, education, public transport, water and sanitation. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, more than 300,000 civilians were killed between March 2011 and March 2021 as a result of the conflict. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a monitoring group with a vast network of sources on the ground, documented the deaths of half a million people by March 2023. Additionally, more than 14 million people had to flee their homes : approximately 7.2 million are internally displaced, another 6 million are refugees or asylum seekers abroad. Neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey have struggled to deal with one of the largest refugee exoduses in recent history. In the year 2023 alone, Turkey has expelled thousands of Syrians to northern Syria, adding further pressure to an already precarious situation. In early 2023, the UN said 15.3 million people inside Syria were in need of some form of humanitarian assistance. In February 2023, the already serious humanitarian situation in the north-west of the country was further aggravated by the large earthquake that struck near the Turkish city of Gaziantep, about 80 km from the Syrian border. By mid-2023, more than 90% of Syrians lived below the poverty line, at least 12 million could not access or afford sufficient quality food, and at least 15 million needed some form of humanitarian aid to survive.
Although numerous programs aimed at assisting Syrian refugees and civilians have been implemented, a long-term political solution that can lead to lasting peace in Syria still appears to be unattainable. The political process regarding the implementation of the 2015 United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254, which calls for a ceasefire and a political solution in Syria, remains stalled. This document outlined a roadmap for political transition in Syria, a goal also outlined in the 2012 Geneva Communiqué, which called for the formation of a transitional governing body “formed on the basis of mutual consensus.” Despite nine rounds of UN-brokered peace talks, there has been no progress, with President Assad reluctant to negotiate with political opposition groups. In parallel, in 2017, Russia, Iran and Turkey began political negotiations known as the Astana process, which were also unsuccessful. While the Security Council recently underlined the need for Damascus to resume dialogue with the Constitutional Committee towards a lasting solution, the Syrian humanitarian crisis continues to worsen.