CITIC Securities: The starting point of the first half of the market is expected to appear before the holiday
CITIC SecuritiesHe said that the collapse of high-level holding group stocks was the main reason for the sharp fluctuations in market sentiment at the beginning of the year. It is expected that investors’ confidence in the stable growth policy and economic stabilization will continue to strengthen, and market sentiment will be boosted as the main line of stable growth is clarified again. The starting point is approaching, and it is expected to appear before the festival.First of all, the rapid adjustment of high-level holding group stocks has successively induced investors to “cut highs and lows” and lighten their positions. Concerns about the strength of the stabilizing growth policy have induced mutual exchange of positions, which led to the chaos of the main line in the first half of the month, but the market has passed the mood. The most panic point, what is missing is the consensus on the direction of the main line. Secondly, we expect that the concentrated implementation of last year’s economic data will make the market more consistent with the stable growth this year. The formation of policy synergy is on the way, and the market’s economic expectations for 2022 will be gradually revised upwards. Finally, incremental funds have begun to stabilize and resume inflows. The clarification of the main line of stable growth will significantly improve market sentiment. It is expected that the starting point of the first half of the market will appear before the holiday. It is recommended to continue to focus on the “three lows”.
In terms of configuration, we continue to recommend the “three lows”, which include: 1. The fundamentals are expected to remain low, focusing on midstream manufacturing that was suppressed by cost issues in the early stage, such asvehicle, Lithium battery,Photovoltaic equipmentetc., the fundamentals are expected to remain at a low level for tax-free and entertainment content consumption; 2. For varieties with relatively low valuations, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing companies whose real estate credit risk is expected to be mitigated, and experience the impact of Chinese concept stocks After the Hong Kong Stock ConnectNetDragon3. High prosperity varieties with relatively low stock prices after adjustment, such as intelligent driving,car parts, and the logic of localizationsemiconductorequipment powersemiconductor, Xinchuang and the military industry.
Guotai Junansecurities: The market has bottomed out, and we will wait for the Chinese New Year for bargain hunting.
Guotai JunansecuritiesIt is believed that this week, the market continued to fluctuate in a downward trend.The Shanghai Composite IndexThe cumulative decline was 1.63%, and the market will still face periodic pressures under the convergence of negative factors. However, considering that the current market transaction congestion is significantly lower than that at the beginning of 2021, we believe that it is difficult to form negative feedback → the market has bottomed out, and we will wait for the new year for bargain hunting.1) The current negative factors are intensively interpreted: The negative disturbance at the denominator end is the core contradiction of the recent market. On the one hand, the minutes of the Fed’s December interest rate meeting released a strong hawkish signal, which affected the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose rapidly.In the market, the domestic first half of thecurrencyOn the basis of consistent expectations, the impact of overseas disturbances on market liquidity expectations is marginally amplified. On the other hand, the superposition of real estate credit risk and Omikron intensifies the pressure of domestic epidemic control, so that the risk appetite at the denominator side is still suppressed. 2) But the market downturn has a bottom: the current market congestion is low → the possibility of stampede is low → the market downturn has a bottom, which is not comparable to the market in February 2021. Looking forward to after the Spring Festival, the negative factors centered on overseas liquidity risks will be gradually implemented and digested. At the same time, with the successive completion of the transition of provincial party and government organs, the policy of stabilizing growth will be gradually promoted and exerted, and the market is expected to gradually recover. . On the whole, we made a bargain-hunting layout a few years ago and waited for the Chinese New Year.
The style is switched, and the water flows low. 1) In the short term, the market is accelerating the high-low switching. The recent structural market situation has gradually shown the characteristics of high and low switching. Since the beginning of January, the low price-to-book ratio index and the low price-to-earnings ratio index have risen by 1.76% and 1.26% respectively, while the corresponding high price-to-book ratio index and high price-earnings ratio index have respectively fallen. 8.16% vs -6.81%. At present, the impact of negative expectations on overseas liquidity and the low risk appetite, we believe that the market style will accelerate the switch to the low valuation style. 2) From a medium-term perspective, we should also grasp the direction of valuation repair under the improvement of fundamentals. Further from the perspective of the medium term, with the weakening of profit contribution in 2022, the excess returns of the market will also come from valuation repairs. At the same time, considering the limitations of time and space for loose expectations, the valuation side does not have the basis for a comprehensive uplift. We should focus on the direction of valuation repair, and the positive feedback mechanism of fundamentals will further determine the slope of valuation repair.
Industry configuration: 1) Consumption: pigs/home appliances/furniture and social services/tourism/liquor; 2) Infrastructure: building materials/construction/electricity operation; 3) Finance:brokerage、Bank；4)Consumer Electronics。
CICC: Stable growth “and” the entanglement of growth style, there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the mid-term
CICCSaid that since the beginning of the year, the performance of A shares has been relatively sluggish, and the sector has generally fallen.Bank, real estate, agriculture and other sectors have slightly positive returns, which may be due to several reasons: First, from the perspective of the domestic environment, the growth has not seen a significant improvement, and investors are paying close attention to the strength and pace of policy implementation; second, the recent The spread of the epidemic at home and abroad is accelerating, and major domestic cities are under great pressure to prevent and control the epidemic. Investors are cautious about consumption recovery, especially during the Spring Festival. Third, major global markets have fallen more and less since the beginning of the year, and the US monetary policy has tightened. Investors are also worried that this will affect the risk appetite of A shares.
We expect the above factors may still affect market sentiment in the near-term, but we do not think overly pessimism is necessary in the medium term.At present, the domestic policy of “steady growth” is still in the process of being gradually implemented. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous introduction of the “steady growth” policy details and the gradual stabilization of domestic growth, market sentiment is expected to recover; the current policies of China and the United States are “reverse”, and more Concerned about “inflation” while China is dealing with “stagnation”, the impact of U.S. monetary policy and market volatility on A-shares may be relatively limited in this context. Recently, northbound funds have remained funds for two consecutive weeks.net inflow。
The “growth style” that performed poorly in the early stage has stabilized recently. We believe that the sharp sell-off of the “growth style” may come to an end, but it may not be in a hurry to hunt for the bottom; although the “steady growth” style has pulled back this week, the follow-up may continue. There is room for performance. We still maintain the previous “steady growth” style and may continue until the end of the first quarter, when it may be the turning point of the style returning to the growth style more obviously.
Industry configuration suggestion: The steady growth style may continue, and the manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround.1) Marginal changes in policies or areas with potential support, including infrastructure, industry chains related to stable demand for real estate (construction, building materials, home appliances, home furnishing, real estate, etc.), potential consumer support areas, securities companies, etc.; 2) Already this year The mid-stream and downstream consumption that has been adjusted, the valuation is not high, and the medium and long-term prospects are still bright, choose stocks from the bottom up, including home appliances, light industry and household, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery,food and drink, medicine, aviation hotels, etc.; 3) The short-term share price of manufacturing growth sectors that rose sharply last year may be suppressed, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardwaresemiconductorWait, the potential turnaround depends on the market style changing again, and the potential time point may be the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter. The aforementioned three directions may overlap slightly, and the first direction is more phased and requires more attention to policy rhythm.
CITIC Construction Investmentsecurities: The popular track is accumulating strength to regain the rally
CITIC Construction InvestmentSecurities believes that from the perspective of the internal environment, there has been a marginal improvement in liquidity recently. 500 billion MLF will expire next Monday, and we are concerned about the possibility of a sequel to cut interest rates. Loose credit and structural monetary policies are worth looking forward to. In the two weeks since the beginning of this year, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 13 billion, of which the allocation type is as high as 11.4 billion, and the net inflow has been in the new energy sector for 9 consecutive trading days.
The current boom of popular tracks (new energy vehicles/photovoltaics/semiconductors/military industry, etc.) is driven by the industry cycle rather than the economic environment. There is still a lot of room for penetration rate improvement, and some industries are gradually adopting the logic of globalization.After this round of adjustment, the sector’s high valuation concerns have been largely alleviated, with 30%+performanceThe growth rate is still attractive, and we are still optimistic about the overall industry development and relative income performance, supported by the fundamentals of the high prosperity at least throughout the first half of the year. Looking forward to the later period, the source of excess returns may lie in the segmented links where the prosperity continues or even further upwards, as well as incremental investment opportunities brought about by the evolution of industrial trends.Focus on: military industry, photovoltaic (middle and downstream)/new energy operation, new energy vehicle (powerBattery/Intelligent spare parts), semiconductors (IGBT/materials/equipment).On the other hand, specializing in special new – small and medium-sized caps in the boom welcome the opportunity of industrial upgrading, based on their relatively low valuation level (corresponding to high valuation elasticity) andInstitutional positionsProportion is also expected to become another source of excess returns.
Haitong Securities: Adjustment at the beginning of the year will not change the spring market trend, pay attention to big finance, new and old infrastructure
Haitong SecuritiesSaid that, in general, everyone’s doubts about the spring market are mainly due to two concerns. One is that the policy is difficult to hedge against the downward pressure on the macro economy, and the other is that the micro-capital level at the beginning of the year is no longer sufficient. Haitong’s strategy believes that: (1) The policy of stabilizing growth has been intensively implemented, and the market will eventually rise when the policy of stabilizing growth is promoted by learning from history. ②In the first quarter, there are often more funds entering the market, due to the issuance of year-end bonuses for employees and the peak season for issuance of asset management products. ③ The adjustment at the beginning of the year does not change the spring market trend, and the structure is balanced, focusing on the undervalued big finance + new and old infrastructure with policy efforts.
China Merchants Securities: A-shares may see a structural rebound in the short term
China Merchants SecuritiesIt is believed that since the beginning of the year, A-shares have experienced greater fluctuations due to the resonance of multiple factors such as less-than-expected incremental funds, insufficient financing needs, investors’ less than expected sense of stable growth, sharp rise in U.S. bond yields, and continuous domestic epidemics. In the follow-up, the convening of the local two sessions may strengthen the market’s expectations for stable growth. If the central bank’s monetary policy is further substantively loosed and the steady growth after the two sessions is expected to bring about a turnaround for A shares. Considering the Spring Festival effect of A-shares, A-shares may experience a structural rebound in the short-term, and they can be deployed along industries with better-than-expected performance forecasts.
Industrial Securities: Currently in the bottom area, the dawn will appear
Industrial SecuritiesSaid that the market has experienced turbulence since the beginning of the year, but currently we believe that it is already in the bottom area.On the one hand, the recovery of low valuations in sectors such as financial and real estate will continue to materialize after experiencing volatility. On the other hand, the adjustment space for popular tracks such as the “New Half Army” is already relatively sufficient.
At present, we believe that a wave of market similar to “mini version 2014” is brewing, and its timing depends on the process of easing credit: 1) The market is already in the time window of “steady growth” and marginal “credit easing”, and the core logic of the market continues to be fulfilled, Strengthening: Although the new social financing in December 2021 is slightly lower than expected, the stock social financing 10.3% year-on-year is still higher than the previous value of 10.1%, and the M2 year-on-year 9.0% is also higher than the expected 8.7%, indicating that the credit environment is still trending Sexual improvement. In addition, the new special debt quota of 1.46 trillion has been issued in advance, and some major projects in some provinces and cities have also been issued earlier than in previous years, and social financing is expected to recover further in January. Various signals and data are constantly verifying the direction of marginal “wide credit”. 2) In terms of timing, the index market in 2014 was not formally established until the central bank cut interest rates on November 21, 2014. At present, it is also necessary to wait for signals such as increasing the amount of social financing, lowering the reserve ratio and lowering interest rates. But from the point of time of the layout, just as the market finally proved that every adjustment from August to October 2014 became an excellent buying point, it is still in the window of the layout on the left. 3) But the difference between the present and 2014 is that, on the one hand, 2014 was a comprehensive and systematic relaxation, while currently, under the keynote of “housing and not speculating” in real estate and “supporting but not raising” infrastructure, the policy easing efforts and space are Relatively limited, more likely to be staged, underpinned relaxation. On the other hand, in 2014, it gradually evolved into a round of leveraged bulls, while the current market leverage is weak, and institutional funds are still the dominant force in the market. Therefore, the final interpretation form is similar to the “mini version of 2014”, and the time and rhythm depend on the process of leniency.
Investment strategy: On the one hand, grasp the low valuation of financial real estate and other low-value repair market, on the other hand, use long to beat short, bargain-hunting layout “small high-tech”. In the long run, focus on five major directions of technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) Next-generation information and communication technologies (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc.), 3) High-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools,robot, advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO,medical instrumentsand diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space stations, space shuttles, etc.).
West China Securities: Watershed or after the Spring Festival, ready to go
West China SecuritiesSaid that the watershed may be ready to go after the Spring Festival.Since the beginning of the year, A-shares have been subject to the disturbance of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the valuation adjustment of the high prosperity track, and the “spring lack” market characteristics are more obvious. As the Spring Festival is approaching, in view of the uncertainty of overseas news during the holiday period, some OTC funds stayed on the sidelines, and the market may be classified as light. Watershed or after the Spring Festival. At that time, the path of the Fed to raise interest rates will become clearer, and domestic liquidity will remain abundant. At the same time, the steady growth policies related to infrastructure and real estate investment continued to exert force, becoming the driving force for A-shares to get out of the “cold spring”. Considering that the current domestic monetary policy is loose and the valuation of A-shares is generally reasonable, incremental foreign capital is also expected to continue to flow into the A-share market.In terms of configuration, it is mainly based on “low-value blue-chip”: First, related to traditional infrastructure, such asBank, building materials; the second is the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chains that benefit from the marginal improvement of the real estate policy. Thematic concerns: digital economy, metaverse,traditional Chinese medicineWait.
Guosheng Securities: The rise of value may only be the beginning, and a wave of resonance is expected to start after the Spring Festival
Guosheng Securities believes that with the full force of the stabilizing growth policy, credit conditions have ushered in a real stabilization, and there is a need for further easing on the policy side in the future.In the short term, the liquidity risk of real estate enterprises still exists, and the impact of the high base in 2021 may cause periodic disturbances to the stable growth sector; but from the perspective of fundamental trends, the current is the initial stage of the full force of the stable growth policy, and credit conditions There has been a real stabilization, and the rise of value may only be the beginning. With the valuation of the growth track digested, a wave of resonance is expected to start after the Spring Festival, and steady growth is still the largest beta mainline in the next quarter.
Strategies and industry recommendations (1) Credit conditions have ushered in a real stabilization, M1-PPIThe bottom inflection point has been confirmed, and there is a high probability that it will continue to repair upwards in the later period. In the medium term, we will continue to be optimistic about the value stock market. The direction of stable growth recommends high-quality banks and state-owned enterprise developers, and construction/building materials; Power operation and communication; (3) upstream cost reversalcar parts, home appliances, benefiting from the low valuation and concept-catalyzed media.
Minsheng Securities: Expectations are repeated, the market is still waiting for a “new consensus”
Minsheng Securities said that the overall A-share market continued to decline last week, the ChiNext rebounded slightly compared with last week, and the trend of value outperforming growth since the beginning of the year has repeated. This may reflect the market’s doubts about the strength of “stabilizing growth” after some economic data in December 2021 was released. We have previously highlighted the risk that short-term market fluctuations will continue. At the same time, we also emphasized that the current stable growth is still in the stage of “expected interpretation”. It will take time to condense the “new consensus” of the market, and the style switching has certain direction, but it needs to be completed gradually. . Investors in the whole market are waiting for new marginal changes, but the difference is: loose money pushes up valuations vs. wide credit brings prosperity to recovery.
In the volatile market, the study of transaction structure can be helpful for short-term trend judgment from the perspective of fundamentals.There are two concerns at the current transaction level: on the one hand, the fixed openingfundThe redemption pressure faced will cause disturbance to the market. According to our calculations, February and March of 2022 may be the months with greater potential redemption pressure throughout the year (36.420 billion yuan and 31.129 billion yuan respectively due to expire). open, most of which are located in the yield range with higher redemption probability), this pressure is mainly concentrated infood and drink, electronics, power equipment and new energy, medicine and other growth sectors; on the other hand, after historically similar strong stocks fell, the overall retracement rate (median / mean -36.80% / -38.60%), The pullback in strong stocks since December has yet to reach this level (mean/median of -17.40%/-16.59%).
The real opportunities and turning points in the market lie at several key nodes: the confirmation of wide credit (not wide currency), the confirmation of disturbances on the fund’s liability side and the pullback of strong stocks reaching the historical average level.It should be pointed out that there is no “perfect bottom” in the market, which means that when some of the above factors are present, it should be involvedHershey’smachine. Investors who need to stay in the market should gradually make structural adjustments to take a more certain path in demand recovery (inflation itself). The scenario we believe more in is: In the scenario where demand stabilizes and recovers, the certainty of inflation will be stronger than demand itself, and the two will jointly drive the return of value. Recommended layout: non-ferrous metals (aluminum, copper, gold), crude oil chain (oil service, oil transportation), real estate, banking, coal and electricity, the theme recommends rural revitalization and county consumption (brand clothing, digital government affairs).
(Article source: Broker China)
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