According to the Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, researcher Yao Hui), the latest strategic views of the top ten securities firms have been released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: Game intensified at the end of the year, blue chips are getting better
At the end of the year, the market game will intensify, “high-cut low” transactions will enter the mid-market, and high-quality blue chips will gradually enter the good situation in the beginning of the year. It is recommended to closely follow the two main lines and lay out the “three lows.” First of all, the relay of the policy of stabilizing growth is underway, and it will take time to form a joint force. It is expected that the fourth quarter data will show a clear trend of recovery of the domestic economy. The data in the first quarter of next year will fully reflect the effect of the policy joint force, and market confidence will also be quickly restored. Secondly, at the end of the year, whether it is the entry of incremental funds or the adjustment of stock funds, it will reflect the characteristics of water flowing to a low point. “High cutting low” is still the trading direction with the least resistance, and the market style of the new year is still obvious. Lean towards the broader market and low-level blue chip repairs. Finally, the “good start” of bank credit at the beginning of the year may exceed expectations, which will confirm the trend of restoration of the credit cycle; the new “good start” of public offerings will make the market more liquid, and it is expected that the A-share high-quality blue chip market will gradually improve in the beginning of 2022. , It is recommended to closely follow the two main lines of stabilizing the implementation of the growth policy and the rebound in consumption volume and price, and firmly focus on the “three lows” to carry out the new year’s layout of blue-chip products.
It is recommended to focus on: ❶The products with low fundamental expectations, focus on midstream manufacturing that was suppressed by cost and supply chain issues in the early stage, such as auto parts, power equipment, etc., and gradually increase the proportion of consumption and medicine whose valuation has returned to a reasonable range. Industries, such as liquor, food, vaccines, etc.; ❷Variants whose valuations are still relatively low, pay attention to high-quality developers and building materials companies after the mitigation of real estate credit risk expectations, as well as the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of China’s concept stocks; ❸ adjustments Later, high-prosperity products with relatively low stock prices, such as semiconductor equipment, special chip devices, and military industries promoted by localized logic.
Huaan Securities: The policy of stabilizing growth continues to confirm that the new year’s market will be carried out to the end
The policy of stabilizing economic growth has been continuously implemented and confirmed. In terms of risk appetite, policies have actively boosted the new year’s market. In terms of liquidity, the fourth quarter monetary policy meeting emphasized the combination of inter-cyclical and counter-cyclical, with equal emphasis on total volume and structure, and the tone of total volume loosening was fully confirmed.
Although the overall weakness of lithium batteries in the business track and the market has certain concerns, we believe that the main reason is that after the Central Economic Work Conference, investors have switched to stable growth, but we believe that the first prerequisite for stable growth is the loose liquidity. Monetary policy four The quarterly regular meeting also basically confirmed the signal of total easing. Therefore, in the context of loose liquidity, the growth style is more flexible, and it is expected to usher in a further increase in valuation. Therefore, continue to stick to the positive overall configuration thinking. The first is to stick to the main line of growth. In the short-term lithium battery adjustment stage, we should focus on the segments that have economic advantages within the track, especially the segments that are expected to increase in volume. In the medium and long term, driven by the prosperity and policies, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, Hydrogen energy, energy storage, and semiconductor industry chains are still important allocation directions; the second is the transformation and new construction of the power system related to stable growth, and the main line of construction and building materials related to the infrastructure construction that is related to the policy; the third is the consumption aspect Mainly focus on food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery with price increase; fourthly, the financial direction mainly focuses on securities companies and real estate. Brokerage firms benefited from the continued high transaction volume, and real estate benefited from the marginal improvement in the policy of M&A loans, superimposed on low valuations, all of which are relatively high-quality allocation types.
CICC: Don’t be pessimistic about “steady growth” and continue to make efforts
Judging from historical experience, the market tends to gradually turn positive during periods of clearer policy implementation or significant improvement in forward-looking indicators. We believe that the short-term “stabilized growth” policy is expected to be gradually implemented in the future. In the medium term, the growth and policy cycles of China and foreign countries will be reversed again in 2022, valuation and liquidity support, industrial upgrading and other structural trends are expected to support market performance.
In terms of style, due to large gains, high valuations and expectations, and overall institutional positions of track growth stocks, we estimate that short-term performance may be depressed, and areas related to the “steady growth” policy may continue to show relative resilience. .
The allocation continues to tilt toward policy expectations and the mid- and downstream directions: 1) The marginal changes in policies or the areas that are potentially supportive, including infrastructure and real estate stable demand-related industrial chains (construction, building materials, home appliances, home furnishings, real estate, etc.), and potentially possible Consumption support areas, brokerages, etc.; 2) Mid- and downstream consumption that has been adjusted this year, valuation is not high, and the mid- and long-term prospects is still clear, select stocks from the bottom up, including food and beverage, medicine, home appliances, light industry and home furnishing, Automobiles and parts, the Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, etc.; 3) Manufacturing directions that may be depressed in the short-term and focus on high-prosperity in the medium-term, including new energy vehicles, new energy, and technology hardware semiconductors, are selected according to the changes in the prosperity of the industrial chain. Stock allocation, paying particular attention to manufacturing opportunities in the transmission and distribution upgrades, auto parts and other links. The aforementioned three directions may overlap slightly. The first direction is more phased and requires more attention to the pace of policy.
Guotai Junan: Over-valuation and crowded transactions still face phase adjustments
The recent high volatility in the market has narrowed the earning effect, both in the significant adjustment of the broad-based index represented by the ChiNext Index, and in the weekly increase in only 30% of the number of stocks. The main reasons behind the adjustments and volatility are: 1) Since December, the full rate cut has been combined with the 1-year LPR reduction, and the easing expectations have been realized in stages; 2) overseas interest rate hike expectations have risen, and global inflation has converged with the spread of the epidemic; 3)” Stage factors such as anti-counterfeiting foreign investment have put greater pressure on growth sectors such as crowded transactions and high valuations of new energy. Disturbance aside, new momentum is still brewing, and the transmission chain of “policy bottom → valuation bottom → profit bottom” will be relayed. Looking into the future, we maintain the judgment that “rest is not achieved overnight”, and believe that the rhythm of this round of New Year’s Eve offensive is more moderate. With the gradual implementation of specific policies for stabilizing growth in the first quarter of 2022, and easing expectations once again open up the imagination, the new year’s market will continue to be further interpreted.
From the perspective of the Central Economic Work Conference, the next phase of the policy core marginal sword is aimed at stabilizing the economy. In accordance with the order of stabilizing growth, the correction of pessimistic expectations is superimposed. Recommendations: 1) Consumption: Accelerate to the bottom of expectations, and recommend performance. Support and dilute the negative expectations of liquor, live pigs, home appliances, furniture, and social services/tourism; 2) Finance: brokerages, banks; 3) consumer electronics; 4) infrastructure: grasp the focus of new infrastructure such as BIPV and power operation, and pay attention to it The power of traditional infrastructure under steady growth.
West China Securities: firm confidence in the structural market is far from over
In the short term, A-shares are gaining momentum for the new year, preparing for the restless market at the beginning of the year. Since December, the monetary policies of Western countries led by the United States have been tightening, and the spread of mutant strains has caused certain fluctuations in the global market. At the same time, as the institutional capital game heats up at the end of the year, the rotation of the A-share sector has intensified. Policy trends at home and abroad are different. In the warm period of the “steady growth” policy, the monetary policy will be more proactive in the next stage, market liquidity will remain abundant, credit is expected to accelerate at the beginning of the year, and the probability of MLF rate cuts is also increasing. In the general environment of market turbulence, the spring turbulence can be laid out on dips, favoring consumption growth. In terms of industry configuration, there are three main lines of investment:
1) Growth sectors, such as new energy (vehicles) (smart grid, energy storage, wind energy, photovoltaics, etc.), electronic industry chain; 2) “Spring Festival effect”, the liquor sector with certain price increases; 3) Benefit from “causes” In the “real estate” sector with marginal changes in real estate policy, individual stocks focus on central enterprises that have increased their market share.
Industrial Securities: The New Year’s Eve market has not ended, and the stocks are alternately rotating.
The New Year’s Eve quotes will rise in the midst of “hesitation” in the market and alternating sectors. The market logic is still in place, and continues to be realized and strengthened: 1) On December 20, the 1-year LPR interest rate cut by 5bp, the central bank’s fourth quarter regular meeting on December 25 required monetary policy tools to “be more proactive and effective, and increase the impact on the real economy. Support”, “enhance the stability of total credit growth”, “enhance the resilience of economic development, and stabilize the macroeconomic market”. Under the downward pressure of the economy, recent policymakers have continuously released positive signals. Whether it is this interest rate cut or the previous RRR cuts, economic work conferences, and Politburo meetings, we are constantly verifying the judgment that we have been emphasizing that the phased margin “wide credit” is expected to rise. 2) At present, “steady growth” and “stable credit” have begun to exert force. In November, the growth rate of social finance rebounded, and the release of housing loans and the financing of real estate bonds greatly exceeded expectations. At the same time, the issuance of government bonds continued to accelerate, and the decentralization of fiscal deposits was significantly accelerated. It shows that the policy side “stable credit” and “steady growth” have begun to accelerate. 3) With the phased stabilization of the credit environment, the release of physical workloads at the end of the year, the overlap of the new year-end and new-year cross-cycle adjustment window, and the continuous emergence of positive signals such as interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, the market’s expectations for stable growth and policy relaxation will continue to heat up , The phased market enters a time window of wide currency and “wide credit” at the same time, so as to “escort” the market for the new year. Therefore, hold on to the bumps and beat the short with the long. The New Year’s Eve market is unfinished.
In the short-term, on the one hand, we will seize the phased opportunities of repairing low valuations such as state-owned real estate companies and securities firms, and on the other hand, we will use the long-term shortcomings and bargain-hunting to deploy “small high-tech”. In the long term, focus on the five major directions of technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation of information and communication technologies (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, robots, etc.) Advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical equipment and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space stations, space shuttles, etc.).
Southwest Securities: The market is expected to start a new round of rising prices in the first quarter of next year
At present, the market is in a three-phase superposition period of performance vacuum, economic downturn, and repeated epidemics. From the perspective of economic conditions, the current economy is still in a downturn, the risks in the real estate industry have not yet been released, and there are uncertainties in foreign trade. From the perspective of the epidemic situation, thanks to the latest mutant strain Omicron, the number of daily confirmed new crowns worldwide hit a record high, and the new crown epidemic is still spreading violently. We expect that in the first quarter of next year, stimulated by the updated performance outlook and policy relaxation, the market is expected to start a new round of rising prices.
From the perspective of investment strategy, we believe that there are two major directions to focus on, mainly the high-growth sector and the dilemma reversal sector. One is to continue to focus on manufacturing and focus on the high-prosperity track. Including military industry, new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, new energy, energy systems, etc.), semiconductors, Internet of Things, etc., these sectors have long-term logic and will continue to maintain high growth for a long time in the future. The market will start to renew in the first quarter of next year. When the performance is expected, it is expected that the relevant sectors will usher in a new round of upward period. The second is the dilemma reversal track. Including business and tourism, pig cycle, shipbuilding, innovative medicine and other sectors, these sectors are currently at the bottom of the cycle. When the most difficult time, stock prices also reflect these difficulties to a considerable extent. Once the cycle goes up, stock prices are fully flexible. In addition, you can also pay attention to some industrial security areas, such as information security, seed industry security, etc.; consumer electronics, where the industry cycle begins to move upwards.
Shanxi Securities: It is recommended to pay attention to the mandatory consumer sector with strong hedging properties and excellent cost performance
In the context of relatively stable fundamentals, the attractiveness of my country’s domestic capital market has continued to strengthen after the epidemic, and fluctuations brought about by short-term emotional changes are difficult to change the trend of long-term capital entering the market, and the A-share market volume is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, under the expected downturn in earnings, the overall trend of A-shares is insufficient, but structural opportunities still exist. The investment logic sticks to the high-prosperity track supported by policy and industrial logic and the low-level reversal direction with strong hedging attributes. .
In terms of industry, (1) Focus on opportunities in the mandatory consumer sector and durable goods consumer sector with strong hedging properties. (2) The wind power sector, boosted by the “energy transition” policy, is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity. It is recommended to pay attention to leading targets with obvious technological advantages. (3) The long-term positive trend of the new energy sector will not change. However, under the background of long-term surging and acceleration of industrial development, the bad news brought by technological innovation may make the target with higher valuation produce greater short-term development. Selling pressure, it is recommended to reasonably control the position.
Cinda Securities: Adjusting style but not leaving the market in a hurry
The adjustment in the last two weeks was not due to crowded trading (the ups and downs of the market segments are not very different, and the turnover rate is not very extreme), nor is it due to the deterioration of earnings and economic expectations. From the perspective of high-frequency commodity prices, economic expectations, and policy expectations, many sectors with high economic relevance have slightly improved fundamental expectations. The adjustment in the last two weeks may be mainly due to market volatility brought about by investors’ adjustment style. In the past month, it can be clearly observed that almost most of the leading industries are sectors with weaker overall performance this year, such as food and beverage, farming, media, etc. Compared to the previous semiconductors, new energy, resource products, etc., it is estimated The value of repair is a bit bigger. This logical change means that investors who have made money in the past month and those who have made money from March to October have completely different investment concepts and stock selection ideas. It also leads to the lack of agglomeration of the money-making effect, which leads to the recent Two-week market adjustment. However, considering that there is no problem with the overall capital and profit pattern, it will not affect the general logic of the New Year’s Eve market.
The logic of stock selection in the recent market is still following valuation restoration. There are two main lines: one is the technical rebound of the consumer sector. Except for the food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery that have continued to rebound in the past quarter, they have been suppressed for a long time by the epidemic. Tourism, hotels, and commerce and retail, which had a large adjustment in the previous period, began to perform in turns in December. The second is the restoration of the valuation of sectors related to stable growth, and the real estate industry chain (real estate, building materials, etc.) also has performance. Since now is a period of performance vacuum and we are cautious about our full-year performance outlook for 2022, we believe that valuation restoration will be the core stock selection logic before and after the new year. Configuration recommendations: (1) The supply and demand cycles of military industry, hotel, aviation and other industries are independent, and they can be watched throughout the year in 2022. (2) Financial real estate is generally able to advance and retreat in the middle and late stages of the economic downturn. The steady growth will gradually increase in the next six months and can be over-provisioned for six months; (3) Food and beverage, home appliances, computers, media, etc. have performed poorly this year The sector is in the process of quarterly rebound.
Zheshang Securities: Spring turmoil is still worth looking forward to
The reason for the recent market adjustment lies in the rebalance of holdings in the Baotuan sector at the end of the year. In other words, the key driver of the recent market adjustment is not systemic risk but structural switching. Looking forward to 2022, from the perspective of equity fund yields, it is expected to be better than 2021. Looking at the dimension of 1-2 weeks, we believe that the market is still in the window of rebalancing and structural optimization. After experiencing the rebalance of the grouping plate, starting from mid-to-late January, we believe that the market will enter the spring restless window period. First, at the macro level, with the advancement of broad credit, the market’s expectations for liquidity easing are expected to be further strengthened; second, at the meso level, the annual report forecasts have begun to be disclosed successively, which in turn clarifies the new growth trend.
Looking forward to 2022, we suggest to pay attention to three allocation clues, the science and technology innovation board, the inflation chain, and the stable growth chain. First, pay attention to new outlets represented by the science and technology innovation board, and the industry pays attention to semiconductors (analog design, materials), defense equipment (machine plants, aero engines) and consumer electronics (automotive electronics, meta-universe); second, pay attention to inflation The dilemma of the chain reverses opportunities. The industry focuses on agriculture (seeds, pigs) and mass consumption (food); third, it focuses on the growth opportunities of the stable growth chain, and the industry focuses on high-quality leaders such as real estate, banks, home appliances, and home furnishings.