The official announcement came on Friday 10 March, after a few moments of uncertainty: despite the tragic earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria on 6 February 2023, claiming over 50,000 victims, the president Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed the decree confirming the date for the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey to the next 14 maggio.
Con lo slogan “now it’s Turkey’s turn” – “Now it’s Turkey’s turn!” – Erdogan approaches the greatest test for himself and his party, theAKP (The Justice and Development Party), after 20 uninterrupted years in power, and kicks off the electoral campaign for what is considered the most important vote in Turkey’s post-Ottoman history and which will have important effects not only on the Turkish internal panorama, but also on the regional and international horizon.
The decree explains that the elections were brought forward as the date, originally set for June 18, coincided with university exams, summer holidays and trips for the Hajj pilgrimage. May 14, 1950 is, however, also the date on which the elections for the renewal of the Turkish parliament were held, won by the leader of the Democratic Party (DP), the conservative Adnan Menderesthen deposed by the military coup in 1960 and sentenced to death, and for this reason already defined as a “hero” by Erdogan.
An open electoral contest
There are therefore 36 political parties declared suitable and admissible by the Supreme Electoral Council (Yuksek Secim Kurulu, Ysk) of Turkey, who also defined the electoral calendar for the next two months. According to Turkish legislation, in order to participate in the elections, a political party must be present in at least 41 out of 81 provinces, six months before polling day. Another requirement is that the parties hold a large congress at least once.
The electoral competition, which promises to be difficult and which will be played out on the edge of the last vote, is therefore open and essentially sees two coalitions challenge each other: on the one hand, the alliance formed by AKP and from Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) by Devlet Bahçeli, with a possible opening towards the Islamist The Welfare Party Again (heir to the Welfare Party founded by the son of former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, Fatih), and to the DSP (Demokratik Sol Parti). On the other hand, the “Table of six” (actually enlarged to seven): the CHP Of Kemal Kilicdarogluchosen as opposition leader; l’Good (the Good Party) of Aksener, which in the last few days had opened a rift, then recomposed in a short time between the opposition parties precisely because of the appointment of Kilicdaroglu; The Party of Democracy and Progress (Deva) by Ali Babacan (former Minister of Economy with Erdogan); the party ‘Future‘ by Ahmet Davutoglu (former prime minister and minister of foreign affairs with Erdogan), the Happiness Party (Saadet) by Temel Karamollaglu; and Gultekin Uysal’s DP. In addition, theHDP (the pro-Kurdish party) by Selattin Demirtas.
Erdogan’s challenger
So who is Kilicdaroglu? The seventy-three-year-old Kilicdaroglu, also called the “Turkish Gandhi” due to his similarity in features to the Indian politician, is a long-time politician of Kurdish Alevi origins, a minority that has always been discriminated against in Turkey. President of the CHP (heir of Kemalism) since 2010, economist, he succeeded in putting together the largest coalition of parties since the birth of the Turkish Republic, united by two main interests: to defeat Erdogan and restore Turkey to a democratic political system. New Reuters polls show Kilicdaroglu ahead of Erdogan by more than 10 percentage points. The opposition bloc would also lead the race for parliament, at least six points ahead of the AKP and its allies. Other polls, conducted by the MAK company, speak of support forAKP around 40-41%however demonstrating the stability of the government after the February earthquake.
One month after the earthquake
However, Erdogan will have to work hard to obtain a not entirely obvious victory in an election that some of his own allies had suggested postponing by a year. Even before the earthquake, which, in addition to the victims, left millions without a roof to live under and caused damages estimated at 100 billion dollars, Turkey was battling the worst economic crisis since the turn of the century.
Homeless earthquake survivors will be able to register to vote via the website e-Government by March 17. A situation which therefore weighs on the thought and judgment of a large part of the Turkish population, who blame the government for having remained on the sidelines after the earthquake due to the delays in relief efforts, but also point the finger at the economic growth system of the AKP, which has long prioritized and encouraged rampant construction, turning a blind eye to seismic safety codes and standards. All fault lines of a system, revealed to the whole world, and which is now preparing, 100 years after the proclamation of Ataturk’s republic, to a possible change of face.
Cover photo EPA/TURKISH PRESIDENT PRESS OFFICE