U.S. stocks frontline | U.S. May CPI hits its highest point since 2008, S&P 500 Index hits a new high, U.S. debt bottoms out

Original title: US stocks frontline 丨 US May CPI hits the highest point since 2008, S&P 500 index hits a new high, US debt bottoms out

June 10, US Eastern Time, although the US in MayCPI“Breakout” again, but US stocks continued to rise, among them, the S&P 500 index hit a record high in late trading.A lotAnalystSaid that the current market inflation is a short-term risk, therefore, investors are “indifferent” to the US May CPI.

While inflation expectations have risen, mid- and long-term US debt has fallen.In this regard, TD Securitiesinterest rateGennadiy Goldberg, a strategist, said that some investors who shorted bonds have released the CPI report this week and next week’sMidlandPrior to the meeting of the Reserve Bank, the position was cut, which also contributed to the decline in yields.

U.S. stocks and inflation data fly together

As of the close of trading on June 10, the S&P 500 index closed up 0. 47%, reported 4,239.18 points, exceeding the historical peak created in May this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.06% to 34466.24 points.NasdaqThe composite index closed up 0.78% to 1,420.33 points. The Dow and the Nasdaq have also quickly approached historical highs.

The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed gains. The Dow rose 0.06% to 34,466.24 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.47% to 4,239.18 points, and the Nasdaq rose 0.78% to 1,420.33 points.

Despite the overall gains, each of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 has mixed ups and downs. Among them, pharmaceutical stocks led the gains with 1.69%.PfizerPharmaceuticals rose more than 2%; financial stocks led the decline with 1.12%,Goldman SachsFell nearly 2.5%,FuGuo bankFell 1.7%; gold stocks strengthened collectively, Anglo Gold,Barrick GoldIncreased by more than 3%.

Before the market on the 10th, the data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the US May CPI increased by 0.8% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 4.7% and the previous value of 4.2%, the largest increase since August 2008; In May, the core CPI increased by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.5%.

LPL Financial Seniormarketing strategyTeacher Ryan Detrick said that the market is paying more attention to CPI. He believes that the main reason for the rise in inflation is the resumption of work and production, and the stock market has rebounded from this.

Detrick added, “The market is aware that the overall economy is not overheating, so it has to deal with it calmly.”

　　MoodyAnalyst’s chief economist Mark Zandi said that there is evidence that price pressure may be fleeting, just asMidlandAs expected by the Reserve. But at the same time, it is still unclear what level of inflation will eventually reach. He believes that after the end of price increases, inflation will be at a higher level than before the outbreak.

Previously,MidlandThe Chu has stated that it will tolerate an inflation rate above its 2% target, and it will consider the average range of these price increases. According to related reports, this means that the Fed may not start the interest rate hike cycle as quickly as it did in the past to control inflation.

Wu Zhaoyin, director of macro strategy at AVIC Trust, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the current inflation rate is the highest in 13 years, especially the core inflation rate has reached the highest value since 1992, despite the loosecurrencyThe current policy is still to stimulate the economy. In order to control risks in the future, the United States will inevitably start raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet to adjust its monetary policy. Generally speaking, the current easing is still short-term.

Dutch cooperationbankJane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy, believes that relatively low capital prices have triggered excess savings.Global stock marketTo support.

U.S. debt or “bottomed out”

While stocks and inflation have soared, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note recently fell slightly this Thursday, from 1.489% on Wednesday to 1.458%, which is also the lowest level in more than three months. At the same time, the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield has fallen to 2.16%.

Some analysts said that tepid economic data, the release of the Federal Reserve will not immediately tighten monetary policy, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds from overseas investors have all pushed down the yields of Treasury bonds.

Wu Zhaoyin told reporters that the current U.S. 10-year treasury bondinterest rateIt has broken through the 1.5% key interest rate zone, and the decline in the risk-free rate of return has stimulated a rebound in risky assets. However, due to factors such as inflation, the current yield of national debt has also reached a relatively low range, and there is not much room for further exploration.At the same time in order to cope with the currentQualcommThe risk of inflation, “the United States will definitely adjust the current too low federal benchmark interest rate back to a relatively normal range in the future.”

According to a report by NatWest Markets, the recent depreciation of the U.S. dollar has made U.S. Treasury bond yields relatively attractive to investors in Europe and Japan. As of March this year, Japanese investors have increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds by approximately US$19 billion.

NatWest claims that the Fed represents foreign centralbankU.S. securities holdings increased by US$40 billion, hedgingfundIt is also snapping up US Treasuries. John Briggs, director of strategy for the Americas at NatWest, said that some funds that prefer low-risk returns have also begun to switch funds from stocks to bonds in recent weeks.

Wu Zhaoyin believes that although the U.S. May’s higher-than-expected inflation has brought some worries to the stock market, the relatively loose monetary policy in the U.S. still brings certain benefits, and the relatively low yields on government bonds have guided funds from government bonds. And other risk-free assets flow to the stock market.

(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)

(Editor in charge: DF318)