The surge beyond expectations of inflation in the United States – which has risen to the highest rate since 1990 – does not disturb investors and Piazza Affari closes today with a recovery after the misstep on the eve of the day.
US inflation jumped 0.9% on a monthly basis in October, more than the 0.6% rise expected by the consensus, spiking 6.2% yoy, the highest level since 1990. Core inflation, that is, purified of the more volatile components represented by energy and food prices, it increased by 0.6%, compared to the estimated + 0.4%, bringing the figure on an annual basis to + 4.6% from + 4% in September. According to Bloomberg, the US five-year ‘break-even rate’ – an indicator of inflation expectations over the next five years, as derived from bond market indicators – jumped above 3%, the highest since at least 2001. Traders in the Federal Reserve key interest rate futures contract market now see a 38% chance of a rate hike in June 2022 compared to 28% before the inflation report came out.
An increase in inflationary pressures that appears to be generalized with Germany also showing inflation at record levels since 1993.
In this scenario, the Ftse Mib index, down from almost -1% yesterday, marks + 0.4% at 27,549 points at the end of the day. In the front row Stellantis with a jump of 2.53% to 17.88 euros. Oil stocks contrasted with ENI rising (+ 0.35%) despite the turnaround in oil prices. On the other hand, Tenaris was in trouble, down by more than 3%. Among bankers + 1.3% to 11.53 euros for Unicredit with S&P Global Ratings which considers the announcement of the sale of the remaining 20% of Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi AS consistent with UniCredit’s derisking strategy and its focus plan on the core business and on the markets. We expect this decision to have a negligible impact on the bank’s capitalization. However, it further reduces the downside risks associated with its exposure to Turkey given the difficult economic and operational conditions, as well as the strong volatility of the Turkish lira, which has lost around a quarter of its value since the beginning of the year. We recognize that UniCredit still holds approximately $ 855 million of subordinated debt issued by Yapi, due to expire in 2023.
Among the other stocks, up by 0.62%, Fineco which yesterday reported record profits over the 9 months. On the other hand, a decline for Interpump (-0.89%) which closed the third quarter of 2021 with a net profit of 50.1 million euros, an increase compared to 39.5 in the same period of 2020; Ebitda also confirmed its growth to 88.6 million. In the third quarter, sales were 373.5 million from 314.7 million in the third quarter of 2020.