Wall Street in search of direction, after the long weekend of the US stock market due to the celebration of Labor Day. The Dow Jones falls by 0.56% to around 35,171; the S&P 500 drops 0.29% to 4,522, while the Nasdaq risks a very limited rise, equal to + 0.05%, to 15,370.
The note that the analysts of Goldman Sachs issued last Friday, and with which they cut the estimates on US GDP, weighs on sentiment. Not only that: several strategists advise to be on the alert.
Goldman Sachs, in particular, has written to predict for 2021 a growth in US GDP, on an annual basis, equal to + 5.7%, lower than the + 6.2% expected by the consensus. The outlook on GDP for the fourth quarter of the year was also cut, from the growth of + 6.5% previously forecast to an expansion of + 5.5%.
The strategists of the American banking giant motivated the downgrade with the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and the attenuation of the effects of fiscal stimuli.
“Going forward, the obstacles for solid growth in consumption seem to increase – the note reads – the Delta variant is already weighing on the growth of the third quarter, and the weakening of fiscal stimuli, as well as the slower recovery of the services sector. , both will represent an obstacle in the medium term “.
Among the most active stocks in the premarket, GM under pressure after various leaders in the auto industry at the
Munich Motor Show, they admitted they predict the global chip crisis will continue to weigh on the industry.
In particular, Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess, Daimler CEO Ola Kallenius and Ford Europe president Gunnar Herrmann reported, interviewed by CNBC, that it is difficult to understand when the issue of the chip shortage can be resolved.
Volkswagen CEO Diess specifically pointed out that the German car group has seen its market share in China drop due to the problem.
And Ford Europe’s Hermann said he believes the chip crisis could continue into 2024.
Boeing also down, after the Wall Street Journal reported some rumors, according to which the deliveries of the 787 Dreamliners will probably be postponed for the umpteenth time. Furthermore, Ryanair, one of Boeing’s main customer airlines, announced that the negotiations with the US aerospace giant, concerning the delivery of 10 737 MAX jets, have resulted in nothing, due to differences on the price. The deal, if concluded, would have brought Boeing tens of billions of dollars.
The month of September has been positive so far, but we are only at the beginning: the S&P 500 has advanced by 0.3%.
Among other things, we are talking about the historically worst month of the year, in which the S&P fell by 0.6% on average, doing worse than all the other months.
In this context, the note from Morgan Stanley certainly does not help, as it has revised the rating on US shares down to “underweight”.
“We see a nervous period for the months of September and October, in correspondence with the final stages of the mid-cycle transition – wrote the strategists of the Andrew Sheets team – We continue to believe that this is a ‘normal’ cycle, simply more faster and stronger, and our cycle pattern remains expanding. But the next two months will present very strong risks to growth, politics, and the regulatory agenda. ”
At the sector level, Morgan Stanley cut the ratings of several large-cap US pharmaceutical stocks, citing the now limited upside for their shares.
The ratings of Johnson & Johnson, Merck and Amgen, in particular, have been lowered from “overweight” to “equal weight”. All three stocks are down.
The 2021 trend of Wall Street remains positive: since the beginning of the year, the Dow Jones is up by 15.5%, the S&P 500 by 20.7%, and the Nasdaq by 19.2%, although investors and analysts fear that the much feared correction will arrive in September.
In this regard, Bank of America wrote in a note that “some signs indicate that it may be time to start being more selective in choosing shares”.