Western Securities Strategy: Why is there no “spring turmoil” this year and how to lay out the market in the first half of the year

The “winter restlessness” overdrafted the market’s enthusiasm and returned to the “cooling-off period” at the beginning of the year.Looking back on the “spring turmoil” of the past years since 2009, the core logic to promote the market comes from three aspects. The credit impulse at the beginning of the year promoted abundant macro liquidity in the market;currencyAnd the vision of fiscal policy has brought about an increase in market risk appetite. Affected by the base effect brought about by the 2020 epidemic, there have been more detailed changes in the economic and policy rhythms throughout 2021.The emergence of the credit turning point superimposed on the predecessor of monetary and fiscal policies has created a good macro environment for the “winter restlessness”.PerformanceThe vacuum period also provides ample room for imagination for the market. From the perspective of the fourth quarter, both the overall market performance and the driving logic behind it verified the “winter turmoil” proposed in the report “From “valuation switching” to “winter turmoil”” on September 26. View. Since then, we have stated in the “Causes, Processes and Impacts of Historical Restlessness Markets: Also Talking about this Year’s “Winter Restlessness” Quotes” on November 21, “It is difficult for’winter restlessness’ to evolve into New Year’s Eve market”. The core reason lies in the earlier period. The start-up of the restless market overdrafted the enthusiasm of the market. With the implementation of various policies in December, the short-term upward momentum of the market slowed down, and the market began to enter a “cooling-off period” after the restlessness.

The low point expected by the market in the first half of the year is now. Standing at the current point in time, we believe that the low point of macro expectations for the first half of the year may have appeared. From the perspective of overseas markets, the current asset prices have fully reflected the Fed’s monetary policy guidance. With the recent overseas epidemic situation continuing to hit new highs, disturbances to the global economy have begun to appear, and the market is expected to return to “recession trading”. From a domestic perspective, considering that monetary policy still needs to be loosened, the market will gradually become more positive about the economy after the implementation of local infrastructure projects and the resumption of work in the spring. The market can still be more optimistic in the first half of the year.

Stable growth is still the main line of the moment, and growth has reached the left side of the layout. The main line of the year is still the price increase of consumer goods. At the current point in time, optimistic expectations for stable growth are still the main line of the market’s structural market. This year is the year of the change of local government, and historically it is often accompanied by a strong impulse to invest in infrastructure. With the successive convening of the local two sessions in January, the list of major projects in various regions is gradually released, which will become a new catalyst, and steady growth is still the main line of the pre-holiday market. As for the growth sector, the current market sentiment is already at an extremely low level in history. Considering that monetary policy will continue to be looser after the year, the performance of most of the boom tracks is expected to be verified in the annual report season, and the growth track should not be excessive in the first half of the year. pessimistic. From an annual perspective, we still recommend that investors continue to pay attention to the aquaculture, plantation, food processing, andTextile and Apparel、traditional Chinese medicine、rubber productsNecessary consumer goods with strong price transmission capabilities represented by etc. will also be the most deterministic investment mainline for the whole year of 2022.

risk warning

The overseas epidemic has exceeded expectations, the Sino-US trade friction has exceeded expectations, and the pace of policy advancement has fallen short of expectations.

(Article source: Financial Associated Press)

Article source: The Association of Finance

Editor in charge: 10

Original title: Western Securities Strategy: Why there is no “spring turmoil” this year, and how to lay out the market in the first half of the year