The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 9th. In August, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8% year-on-year, and the factory price index (PPI) of industrial producers rose 9.5% year-on-year. This shows that the high prices of raw materials in the past few months have not been substantially transmitted to the prices of end consumer goods. The development of mid- and downstream enterprises may face greater pressure and challenges, and continued efforts are needed to ensure supply and stable prices.
CPI and PPI increase “scissors gap” widened
From the statistical data, my country’s price operation is generally stable. In the first eight months, CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, which was lower than the expected target of macro-control. Among them, in August, the CPI growth rate dropped 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. According to Wang Likun, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, in August, pork prices fell by 44.9% year-on-year, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from July. This was the main reason for the decline in CPI growth.
Unlike the moderate increase in CPI, the PPI increase has continued to rise this year and hit a recent high of 9.5% in August. The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics Fu Linghui previously analyzed that due to the global economic recovery, the tight supply of bulk commodities in major raw material producing countries, the fiscal stimulus of some major developed economies, and the relatively ample currency liquidity, the high commodity prices will continue to run. continued.
Increased production costs and profits are squeezed
The continuously high commodity prices have raised the production costs of mid- and downstream enterprises and squeezed their profit margins. In particular, most small and medium-sized enterprises are located in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, and their bargaining power is not strong, and their ability to transmit and digest the pressure of rising costs of raw materials is relatively weak, and the impact is relatively large.
“Compared with the beginning of last year, the cost of raw materials has risen by nearly 30%.” Sun Yang, marketing director of Anhui Dahan Robot Group, said that due to rising production costs, they appropriately adjusted the export prices of some products, which led to a decrease in some foreign orders.
Sun Yang said that on the one hand, on the basis of not affecting product quality, the company chooses as many domestic alternative raw materials as possible, and further reduces the scale of production; on the other hand, it increases product research and development, optimizes production processes and product design, and improves production efficiency. , Take multiple measures simultaneously to ensure stable production.
Guaranteed supply and stable prices boosted the confidence of market entities
In response to high commodity prices leading to rising production and operating costs, increased accounts receivable, and the impact of the epidemic, the State Council executive meeting held on September 1 pointed out that further measures should be taken on the basis of the policies that have been introduced to benefit enterprises. Stabilize market players, stabilize employment, and maintain economic operations within a reasonable range.
In order to solve the problem of financing difficulties and expensive financing for small, medium and micro enterprises, the meeting proposed a number of assistance measures. Now, an additional 300 billion yuan of small reloan lines have been added every year to support local corporate banks in issuing loans to small and micro businesses and individual industrial and commercial households; Promote banks to issue more inclusive small and micro credit loans, etc.
Prior to this, in order to stabilize the price trend of bulk commodities, relevant departments have adopted measures such as raising export tariffs on some steel products, severely investigating illegal activities such as price hikes, and placing national reserves such as copper, aluminum and zinc. The rapid rise of some bulk commodities has been effectively curbed.
In the face of rising commodity price expectations, a series of policies have been intensively introduced from the central to the local level to ensure supply and stable prices, which provides strong support for boosting the confidence of market entities and stabilizing market expectations.
PPI may still fluctuate at a high level in the short term
“In the future, the PPI may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Later, as the effects of policy measures such as increasing coal production and supply, putting in bulk commodity reserves, and correcting campaigns to reduce carbon emissions, PPI is expected to tend to fall.” China Macroeconomic Research Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Office of the Academy, suggested that at present, we should continue to increase the efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices, strengthen the two-way adjustment of supply and demand, study and timely introduce some continuation policies after the expiration of favorable enterprise policies, and increase support for downstream industries and small, medium and micro enterprises. Stabilize market players and maintain overall price stability.According to Xinhua News Agency
Stock market impact
The deviation of CPI and PPI growth reflects the differentiation of the A-share sector
Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics released the CPI and PPI for August. CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year and PPI rose 9.5% year-on-year-the deviation between the two is a little outrageous.
The increase in CPI in August was much lower than that in PPI. An important reason is that the sharp drop in pork prices lowered the CPI by approximately 1.09 percentage points year-on-year. However, even after deducting the impact of the plunge in meat prices, the year-on-year growth rate of the CPI in August was still about 7.7 percentage points lower than the PPI in the same period.
CPI is the consumer price index, which reflects the demand side. PPI is the producer price index, which reflects the production side. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in August was far inferior to that of PPI. In other words, the demand side is weak, while the production side is strong.
Regarding this phenomenon, in fact, the investors who feel the deepest are the stockholders. There are two lines that A-shares can do best this year: the first line is the three treasures of science and technology (and tributaries), and the second line is resource stocks, including coal stocks, Steel stocks, non-ferrous metal stocks, chemical and chemical fiber stocks, etc. And the overall trend of the second line is obviously better than the first line. Compared with resource stocks’ “coal flying color dancing and chemical churning”, the big consumption related to the lives of the general public, from liquor to condiments to snacks to home appliances, at least half of the stock price is cut or nearly cut.
The production side is too strong, which is naturally related to the end of the global epidemic since the second quarter of this year.
In the post-epidemic era, countries have increased their fiscal stimulus. Large-scale fiscal stimulus will inevitably promote the production side and raise the stock prices of commodities and related stocks.
When the “scissors gap” between PPI and CPI widens, when will it converge? —— This convergence is the key signal for the overall structural reversal of consumer stocks. This time point will definitely come, with a high probability within half a year, but it is difficult to predict the exact time point.
Therefore, for resource stocks that are currently at a high level, we still recommend that you be careful. For resource stocks driven by the concept of pure growth, both callbacks and rises are crazy. Once they callback, the risk is huge. Resource stocks prefer to choose those with superimposed technological content. Consumer stocks have to choose civilian consumption for the time being.
Sector Research and Judgment
How long can “coal super crazy” be “crazy”?
Benefiting from the rise in PPI, low-priced blue chips on the main board broke out in an all-round way.
Yesterday, the price of black products in the cargo market continued to rise sharply. The main coking coal futures contract rose more than 7% to 3046.5 yuan/ton, and the main steam coal contract exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton, up 3.5% within the day, which was the first time that thermal coal futures exceeded 1,000 yuan. In the coal sector, all of the coal stocks went red, soaring 7.10%, the largest increase in more than 6 years and a new high in 13 years. China Shenhua and other 8 stocks have daily limit. At the same time, the oil and gas sector, shipbuilding, cement, steel and other sectors have risen. The non-ferrous sector soared 2.79%, and 6 stocks including Huafeng Aluminum had their daily limit. The steel sector soared 5.83%, the largest increase in six months and a new high in 13 years and 5 months. Eight stocks including Bayi Iron and Steel had their daily limit. The oil sector soared 3.15%, a 20-month high, and Haimo Technology‘s 20% daily limit. The gold sector soared 3.25%, hitting a six-year and three-month high, and Jinchengxin’s daily limit.
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Chongqing Xiaoxin Street Business Department Investment Gu Yang Jiaqian said that coal was a one-man show yesterday, but the current rise is too high. Investors can continue to hold shares for the low-end varieties of the new energy industry chain that are still at the bottom and up; High-level varieties should mainly leave the market on rallies.
Investing and advising
The Shanghai Stock Index may continue to move upwards and should not chase higher
The market oscillated throughout the day yesterday and closed in red. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed at 3,693.13 points, approaching the integer mark of 3,700 points. The ChiNext index rebounded in late trading. The market as a whole was in the washout stage with fierce capital games. The market will break through the year’s high of 3731.69 points on Friday. NS?
The investment advisory team of Chongqing Guoyuan Securities said that yesterday, the market closed a bald-headed Zhongyang line, which repaired the upper shadow line on September 8. It is still oscillating upward along the 5-day line, and it will break through 3700 points and even break through 3731 points in the future. The high probability is a matter of time. However, the GEM received a small negative cross on the same day. It is still rebounding with the trend of the market. In early trading, it stepped back and broke the 5th and 10th lines. There was a wave of fearful selling pressure. In the afternoon, it accelerated back to the half-year line and started to stabilize. After completing the second bottoming, it started a strong rebound, regaining the 5th and 10th lines in one fell swoop. The bottom has gradually stabilized, and a strong rebound is expected in the future.
The low-priced stock index rose another 0.48% to achieve a “14 consecutive gains”, which was the strongest record in the history of the “14 consecutive gains” before the sub-new stock index peaked in May 2015. The investment advisory team believes that short-term pressure on low-priced stocks will increase after the “14 consecutive rises”.
Chongqing Commercial Daily-Upstream News Reporter Feng Shengyong and Wang Ye Return to Sohu to see more
Editor:
Disclaimer: The opinions of this article only represent the author himself. Sohu is an information publishing platform. Sohu only provides information storage space services.
.