On May 14, general elections (presidential and parliamentary) will take place in Turkey in what many analysts have defined the most important electoral round in the history of the country. A few months after the first centenary of the Republic of Turkey (founded in October 1923), the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in fact, he risks having to leave the office of head of state after nine years and twenty in total as the country’s most important political personality, considering the various positions as premier.
At the moment, to tip the balance in favor of the opposition would be the economic crisis and the February earthquake issue, which exposed government corruption and inefficiency.
The Turkish electoral system
On Sunday, not only the name of the next Turkish president will emerge from the polls but also the composition of the Turkish Grand National Assembly, the parliament composed of 600 deputies elected for a five-year term.
The president of Türkiye is elected via universal suffrage for a five-year term. According to the Constitution, the office is entrusted to the candidate who obtains the absolute majority of votes (50%+1). If none of the candidates manages to pass this threshold in the first round, a ballot between the main two (who collect the highest number of votes in the first round).
As far as female parliamentarians are concerned, the 600 deputies are elected through a proportional electoral system in the country’s 87 districts. The seats are distributed among the parties and coalitions with the method D’Hondt: the votes collected are divided repeatedly by an increasing number of units until the number of seats in the district is reached, which are assigned in descending order at the end of the process. However, to enter Parliament, parties or coalitions must overcome the barrier threshold of 7% on a national scale.
The Erdogan-Kilicdaroglu presidential duel
The focus is mainly on the presidential elections, whose main candidates are Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The current president, head of the Justice and Development Party (Justice and Development Party, AKP), conservative with religious traction, runs for his third term.
Despite the two-term limit enshrined in the Constitution, Erdogan is allowed to participate as his first term dates back to 2014 – before the 2017 constitutional reform – and is therefore not considered in the count. The outgoing president can count on the vote of a large part of the conservative and religious electorate, despite the fact that his longtime ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi, MHP), has decided to run for president with its own candidate, Sinan Ogan, deciding to support Erdogan only if it comes to the ballot.
The main challenger, Kilicdarogluis instead the leader of the Republican People’s Party (Republican People’s Party – CHP), erede del kemalismo, di centro-sinistra e laico. Kilicdaroglu is the common candidate of the main opposition coalition in both the presidential and parliamentary elections: the so-called “Table of Six”, which counts on the four parties of the “Alliance of the Nation” and on two other political formations outside the coalition but which have publicly supported the candidacy. In addition to the CHP, in fact, the nationalist “Good Party” (Iyi Parti, IYI), the conservative and religious Happiness Party (Sadeet Partisi, SP), and the liberal Democratic Party (Demokrat Parti, DP) participate in the coalition. . Extra-coalition support comes instead from the Party of Democracy and Progress (Deva) and the Party of the Future (GP), both centre-left.
The Table of Six looks like a political alliance formed by heterogeneous parties at an ideological and visionary level of the country, with the aim of defeating Erdogan as the only glue. In the past months, the coalition has been in danger of dissolving due to Kilicdaroglu’s lack of popularity, especially in the eyes of Meral Aksener, chairman of the coalition’s second force, IYI. The final agreement reached in March, when the forces found themselves on the choice of the current joint candidate on the condition that, in case of victory, they are nominated vice-presidents Ekrem Imamoglu e Mansur Yavas (both of the CHP), mayors of Istanbul and Ankara respectively, judged more popular and charismatic than Kilicdaroglu, on whose shoulders rest several political defeats and a considerable age (75 years).
According to leading agencies that have collected data over the past two weeks (Euronews, R&G Research, GEHSC, 600Vekil), it’s a heads up: the challenger Kilicdaroglu would have a slight advantage in voting intentions with a percentage of preferences ranging from 46 to 49% of the votes, while Edogan remains between 43 and 47%: nobody over 50%. The minor candidates, Muharrem Ince of the Fatherland Party (Memleket Partisi, MP) and Onan (MHP) are expected to garner about 2% and 3%, respectively.
If these predictions turn out to be true, the ballot, scheduled for May 28, would take place, with a far from large advantage for Kilicdaroglu. The number of undecided is still high and could drastically affect the results. As pointed out in the last few hours by JamesInTurkey, a site that deals with Turkish politics, il momentum he is in favor of the opposition e Kilicdaroglu could even win in the first round by just over 50% of the vote.
The weight of the “Third coalition”
The balance of power in the parliamentarians are instead more balanced, since Erdogan’s AKP will present itself within the right-wing coalition “People’s Alliance”, which in addition to the AKP sees the participation of the MHP. The main agencies (R&G Research, ivam) they see the right-wing coalition ahead with a number of preferences ranging from 41% to 48%. The Alliance of the Nation, on the other hand, is placed between 37% and 44% of the preferences. However, should the remaining parties of the Table of Six (outside the Alliance of the Nation for female parliamentarians) cross the threshold, they would be able to strengthen the anti-Erdogan front by allying themselves with the opposition. The role of the third coalition remains in doubt, the “Alliance of Work and Freedom” which according to forecasts will get 12-13%.
The Alliance of Work and Freedom is made up of the Green Left Party (Yesil Sol Partisi, YSP), environmentalist and libertarian, the Workers’ Movement Party (Emekci Hareket Partisi, EHP), socialist, the Social Freedom Party (Toplumsal Ozgurluk Partisi, TOP), a social democrat, and the main faces of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (Peoples’ Democratic PartyHDP), social democrats and pro-Kurdish. This coalition is considered by many to tip the balance in favor of the opposition, since his alliance with the Erdogan right is impossible. However, because of ideological and historical rivalries with some opposition parties it is possible to present itself as an independent third bloc within Parliament.
The HDP has taken two historic decisions: on the one hand does not appear in the presidential elections to avoid taking votes away from the opposition; on the other will run in parliamentarians under the symbol of the YSP with their most prominent politicians. Indeed, the HDP risks closure for the so-called “Kobani Case”, an open trial against the party for aiding and abetting terrorism. The choice to sue the HDP was welcomed by the parties of the current opposition, going on to increase the ideological groove which still today separates them from the more radical forces of the Turkish political scene.
Violence, censorship and arrests
If the current Turkish political scenario appears particularly polarized, this increases national and international tension over the conduct of the elections. Several voices of the opposition have denounced irregularities and repressions by pro-Erdogan forces. The Table of Six denounced unequal treatment at the level of time allowed by the main television and radio stations during the campaign period; while the HDP denounced thearrest of lawyers, journalists and politicians, many of whom are still in prison.
The declarations of Erdogan’s entourage add fuel to the fire. Several voices of the government, in fact, have spoken of “Western-orchestrated electoral coup” or claimed the never tried links between the far left of the country and the PKK. In such a climate, several international observers have raised doubts about the regularity of the elections – with the question of the people affected by the earthquake in the south-east of the country who, being displaced, cannot vote in their own districts – and on thepossible passage of power in case Erdogan loses.
Article by Enrico La Forgia, SWANA editor-in-chief and deputy director of Lo Spiegone
Cover photo EPA/SEDAT SUNA