The U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Carney against a combination of Houthi missiles and drones in the Red Sea on October 19, 2023. US Navy/MCS2 Aaron Lau
The Houthi militias hold territory near a key strait that they can threaten with drones and missiles.
Modern anti-ship weapons are simple enough for militias to operate. At the same time, its effect is also powerful.
The West is currently realizing that there are few good options when it comes to eliminating such a threat.
This is a machine translation of an article from our US colleagues at Business Insider. It was automatically translated and checked by an editor.
When it comes to sheer military power, the US and its allies should have no problem crushing the Houthis – but the Houthis’ missiles continue to disrupt global shipping routes and supply chains. And the repeated retaliatory attacks by US and British forces – and the sinking several Houthi boats – do not seem to deter the Houthi militias in war-torn Yemen.
Geography is on the side of the Houthis
The Houthis are not a major military power, but they don’t have to be. The militia enjoys three advantages that increase its ability to wreak havoc and make it harder for the West to stop it.
First, geography is on the Houthis’ side. The Suez Canal in Egypt, connects the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean and is the best shortcut for ships traveling between Europe or the US East Coast to India and East Asia. Because of this, the world fought desperately for control of the waterway in two world wars. It is estimated that up to 15 percent of world trade and 20 to 30 percent of cargo arriving at U.S. East Coast ports moves through the Suez Canal.
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The channel has always been vulnerable, like that huge container ship from Evergreen 2021 showed. The ship got stuck in the waterway, bringing global trade to a standstill for weeks. Today the problem is no longer the Suez Canal itself, but the threat faced by ships passing through the Red Sea and then the Bab el Mandeb Strait. The “Gate of Tears,” as it is called in Arabic, is located in eastern Eritrea and Djibouti and western Yemen.
Bab el Mandeb is only 110 kilometers long and 30 kilometers wide. Ships transiting the strait are within range of land-based anti-ship missiles, drones and even howitzers. If the strait is blocked, there is no bypass.
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Anti-ship weapons can be easily used by militias
The second problem is technical. Modern anti-ship weapons are powerful yet so simple that even a militant group can operate them. In the Lebanon war in 2006 The Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah used a Chinese C-802 cruise missile, to damage an Israeli warship.
In addition, drones are cheap. Even a small drone can cause damage to a large ship. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies The Houthis have a diverse arsenal of anti-ship missiles, mostly from Iran, but also including older Soviet and Chinese models.
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The Houthi cruise missile arsenal includes Soviet P-21 Termit, Chinese C-801 (with a range of up to 130 kilometers), as well as Iranian Ghadir (300 kilometers) and Quds Z-0 (reportedly up to 800 kilometers). The Houthis also have Iranian-made anti-ship ballistic missiles with a range of around 480 kilometers, as well as drones.
The Houthis fire these rockets from mobile launchers. This means the Houthis can fire a missile and then dismantle the launchers before the US Navy locates the launch site and hits it with a Tomahawk cruise missile. The Houthis are familiar with this tactic from their nine-year war with the Saudi-led coalition. The Saudis bombed Yemen without success.
The technological threat is compounded by geography. The best defense for a ship is not cannons or jammers, but open space. Even a huge aircraft carrier is difficult to detect in the vastness of the ocean, and the onboard radar of an anti-ship missile can only scan a small area.
That’s why the U.S. and other nations are investing so much in satellites, patrol aircraft and sensors to get real-time data that can guide a missile close to a moving ship. However, the Bab el Mandeb is only 30 kilometers wide. This means ships can be detected by ground radar, small boats, small drones, or even an observer on a hill with a good pair of binoculars.
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The Houthis are trying to gain legitimacy through confrontation with Israel
The third problem is political. The Houthis claim they are attacking Israeli ships only in solidarity with the Gaza Strip, although many of the ships nothing to do with Israel have to do. The real reason appears to be Iran’s attempt to become the dominant power in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East through proxies.
The Houthis may not be Iranian puppets, but they have a strong sponsor in nearby Iran and its hardline Shiite government. And their confrontation with Israel is very popular among the country’s population and in the Arab world in general. Tehran doesn’t just support the Houthis with weapons and money: Iranian ships are reportedly delivering supplies to the Houthis Information about ship movements in the Red Sea.
Just as Soviet and Chinese aid has propped up North Vietnam, Iranian support could sustain the Houthis indefinitely. Sanctions against the Houthis, such as the U.S. move to redesignate them as a terrorist organization, are unlikely to be effective against a martyrdom-obsessed group that has no interest in the hunger of its own people.
But that doesn’t mean the Houthis are invincible. Perhaps enough Western attacks on their military and surveillance platforms – and even their leaders – could make a difference. The US has already carried out numerous drone strikes against al-Qaeda in Yemen. A running one peace treaty to end Yemen’s civil war, which the United Nations estimates has claimed 227,000 lives, could influence behavior.
Read the original article in English here.