After the signs of July, with -22 thousand employed on June (first negative figure since August 2021 – source Istat) and + 45.65% of Cigs (first seven months of the year compared to the same period 2021 – source INPS) has arrived on 8 September, the third sign of a real slowdown in the labor market increasingly grappling with the consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Sectors under braking
In the quarter September-November 2022, according to the Excelsior bulletin, branded Unioncamere-Anpal, released on 8 September, companies expect to hire just over 1.4 million workers, over 44 thousand less than in the same quarter 2021 (-3 percent). Almost all of our Made in Italy manufacturing is holding back (-13.4%, equal to -42,540 estimated revenues compared to the same quarter 2021), with peaks in the paper, paper converting and printing companies (-14.6%), mechanical (-19.9%), metallurgical (-25.6%) and textile, clothing, footwear (-31.2 percent).
First negative signs also from the world of services (-3.7% of total admissions expected from now to November in the trend comparison), especially in trade, which marks the most marked stop, -33% of estimated hires. Contrary to the trend in the construction sector, which shows an increase of 30.4% of admissions expected in the quarter September-November, thanks to the strong incentives introduced for the sector.
New peak for the mismatch
To complicate a picture that is already not very rosy in itself is another fact: the mismatch, that is to say the difficulty of entrepreneurs to find the necessary resources. In September, again according to the Excelsior bulletin, the percentage of “unavailable” reached a new peak, 43.3%, 7 points more than in September 2021, when the mismatch between job supply and demand concerned 36, 4% of the profiles searched. The greatest difficulties in recruiting mainly concern skilled workers (56.8% the share of income difficult to find), operators of fixed and mobile plants and technical professions (both 47%). The first two reasons for the mismatch are always the same: lack of candidates for the first place, and to follow, inadequate preparation for the position to be filled.
Warm autumn for work
In short, all the main indicators point to a warm autumn also on the employment front. It is no coincidence that the CISL, on 8 September, asked the Draghi government to urgently provide for a new dose of discounted CIG for businesses. «It is evident from Excelsior forecasts that the production system is experiencing a certain slowdown linked to the energy crisis and an inevitable attitude of greater caution on the part of companies – underlined the president of Unioncamere, Andrea Prete -. A slowdown that I would consider almost physiological in a context of uncertainty and which is affecting above all some manufacturing sectors and trade, while other sectors, such as construction, confirm positive trends. The real problem at this stage is the surge in inflation, which reduces the purchasing power of households. And, together with this, the always very high difficulty of companies to find the right professionals to be included in the company. A knot that has many origins, including denatality and the inadequate connection between training and the business world, on which it will be necessary to intervene ».