MILANO – The latest signs of stagnation in the Italian labor market are confirmed by the Istat data for January. In the first month of the new year total employees there were 22 million 827 thousand, down by 7 thousand on December 2021 and up by 729 thousand on January 2021. The female component is decisive: according to the Institute of Statistics, in December there are 77 thousand fewer employed women and 69 thousand more men. The employment rate it is stable at 59.2%. On an annual basis, however, also in January there was an increase of 354 thousand women and 375 thousand men.
The optical illusion of employment recovery: few workers, so the rate goes up
by Valentina Conte
In detail, the stagnation of employment derives on the one hand from the growth in the number of employees among men, permanent employees, the under-25s and the over-50s and on the other hand from the decrease among women, as seen, of fixed-term employees and those belonging to the intermediate age groups.
I also go down unemployed (-2.3%, equal to -51 thousand units compared to December) and this is noticeable among men and for all age groups, with the only exception of 35-49 year-olds. The unemployment rate it drops to 8.8% overall (-0.2 points) and to 25.3% among young people (-1.3 points). But the shadows on the decline in unemployment are stretched growth of inactive peoplethat is, of those who do not even seek work: + 74 thousand units, “the result of the increase observed among women and those under the age of 50. The inactivity rate rises to 35.0% (+0.2 points)” .
In comparison on January 2021, as we said, the number of employees is 3.3% higher (+ 729 thousand units). “This increase is observed for men and women, for any age group and professional position. The employment rate is higher by 2.4 percentage points”. In the annual comparison, both the number of job seekers (-12.9%, equal to -326 thousand units), and the amount of inactive persons between 15 and 64 years old (-5.0%, equal to -684 thousand ) “.
In the comment to the data, the statisticians speak of a confirmation of the “substantial stability of employment recorded in December, after the growth observed during the year (with the only exceptions of the months of August and October). From January 2021, in fact, the number of employees increased by approximately 730,000 units and the employment rate by 2.4 percentage points “. Compared to pre-pandemic levels (February 2020), the employment rate, equal to 59.2%, is 0.2 points higher, the unemployment rate fell from 9.6% to 8.8% and the of inactivity, at 35.0%, is still 0.4 points higher. As recently highlighted by RepublicHowever, the recovery of the employment rate is affected by the thinning of the workforce: the demographic impact makes the relationship between employed and population improve, but the employed are less today than they were at the beginning of the pandemic. In absolute value, in fact, the historical series show that there were 23.052 million in January 2020 and they were 22.82 million last January.
Coming to the detail of the young, in the 15-24 age group unemployment in January dropped to 25.3%, by 8% on a trend basis (January 2021) and by -1.3% on December 2021. The employment rate, again in this age group, is at 18.9% with an increase of 3% yoy and 0.1% yoy. In addition, the inactivity rate is 74.7%, marking a decrease of 1.5% per year and an increase of 0.3% per month.