A new poll found parity between the two largest coalitions in the country and La Libertad Avanza, the party led by Javier Miley. With a slight advantage of the Frente de Todos of seven hundredths, the stage of thirds once again confirms what was said by Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and leaves open the unknown about the participants of a possible ballot. Regarding the economy, 38.8% favor a program of “moderate and gradual” modifications.
The electoral timer is advancing at full speed and in the coming days there will be two key dates: on the one hand, the deadline to ratify electoral alliances; on the other, the presentation of candidacies on June 24. With ratified nominations and others in the works, the coming weeks will be turbulent in Argentine politics and will culminate with months of conjecture in the first round to be held in the August elections.
Against this backdrop, the consultant analogies carried out a study in the last days of May to take the temperature of public opinion in a year of high inflation and total uncertainty.
“Which space do you think you are going to support in this year’s presidential elections?”, was one of the queries that launched the study. There the Frente de Todos prevailed (27.5%) and by a very narrow margin, behind was Together for Change (25.8%). The podium or stage of three was completed by La Libertad Avanza (21.2%).
There is substantial information on this question and it is what can happen to the undecided, that “soft vote” that turns out to be decisive when the competitors approach the goal. Says Analogies: “Among those who responded that they are going to vote “blank” or “don’t know” who they will vote for, there are around 22% of those surveyed.four percentage points less than in the March monitor”.
These numbers shared by several consultants come to ratify two statements by the vice president: on the one hand, that the bicoalition scenario of the last presidential elections of 2015 and 2019 has vanished. On the other, that the ruling party must “go out and make love” to those disenchanted in the dark room they elected Alberto Fernández and today they observe an inflationary doubling with respect to the administration of Mauricio Macri.
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Added to this is the Pan-Peronist fear of finishing in third place and seeing “on television” how the election between Together for Change and the libertarians is settled. The stage is completely open.
Economic proposals in a red numbers scenario
In another section, the consultant gathered opinions on the program that the next administration should carry out as of December 10.
“In principle, we asked about the nature of the program to be implemented by a possible next government, in this case dichotomizing between a shock strategy or a gradual plan: 27% responded that they believe a shock program should be applied, 39% a moderate and gradual program and 34% said they “did not know”, “explains the report.
In addition, they detail that those consulted in favor of the shock are opponents, while those inclined to fix the economy gradually respond to the ruling party.
Another issue was the loan requested by the country from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the question was whether it should be renegotiated, something that already happened during the economic management of Martín Guzmán in 2022.
In a context where Sergio Massa’s economic team and the Minister of Economy himself are trying to obtain advance payments that the multilateral organization must make to the country within the framework of the agreement signed by Guzmán, 55% of respondents said the deal should be renegotiated. Meanwhile, 18.4% said they did not and 27% claimed they did not know.
Finally, they also consulted how the next two years will be in economic matters. There, 21.8% thought that it will be “just as bad” and 21.3% “better”.
The survey was carried out between May 28 and 31 to a total of 2,605 cases in 24 provinces of the country. The methodology was by telephone interviews. According to the sample error, he marked +/-2% and a confidence level of 95%.
CP