This Wednesday, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) will announce the inflation data corresponding to the month of Maywhich is expected from the Ministry of Economy, in charge of Sergio Massawhich is less than the 8.4% of April.
Both the head of the Palacio de Hacienda and the board of the Central Bank (BCRA) believe that the Consumer’s price index (IPC) that will be broadcast in the afternoon looked moderate in recent weeks last month, especially due to the exchange rate truce achieved in the middle of the month.
In this sense, Massa expressed himself days ago when he predicted that the inflation data for May would be «in line with the inflation of the City of Buenos Aires (7.5%)which came out last week and gave a little below April.
However, the estimates of private consultancies they don’t seem to match with the scenario that is expected from the Government, which insists on a moderation trend in the increase in the cost of living.
As seen in the last Survey of Market Expectations (REM)which the Central Bank disseminates monthly, consultants and specialists estimated monthly inflation for May around 9%, even above what was seen in April, the worst data so far in the management of Alberto Fernández.
The INDEC publishes today the inflation for May: what figure the consultants expect
Although the Government awaits lower data than expected by the market, thus allowing it to show a slight downward trend, the panorama is different in private consultancieswhich in most cases They forecast higher inflation in May.
The C&T consultancy for Greater Buenos Aires, for example, exhibited a monthly rise of 8.7%, exceeding that of April and May of last year. For the consulting firm Ecolatina, for its part, inflation in May got to 8.9while for EcoGo, stood at 9%.
Somewhat lower was the forecast from Analytica, which registered an 8.9% of inflation during the past month, whose official data will be published this afternoon by INDEC.
In the breakdown of the data, the consultants specified that, as happened in April, the rise in the dollar and the increase in prepaid, tolls, fuel, taxis, public transport, private schools and electricity and gas serviceshad an impact on the price index of the last month.
