With 4.4 billion subscriptions planned for the end of 2027, 5G will soon become the dominant mobile technology: By that date, it will cover nearly half (49% to be exact) of all Internet subscriptions for smartphones.
The estimate, contained in the new edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, is supported by the sharp increase in the number of subscriptions to plans for 5G globally recorded in the third quarter of 2021, equal to 98 million (which allows to reach a total of 570): just over double the 48 million new 4G subscriptions. By the end of the year there will be nearly 600 million 5G subscriptions: one growth fueled by demand, higher than expected, in China and North America, which is also explained by the decrease in the prices of 5G devices.
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The growing adoption of this technology is accompanied by the continuous expansion of the volume of mobile data traffic, which has increased 300 times compared to 2011. Between July and September of 2021 this has reached around 78 Eb per month (+ 42% year on year), including the traffic generated by Fixed Wireless Access services: a trend that has prompted researchers to estimate that in 6 years the threshold of 370 Eb per month will also be exceeded . A push caused by the subscription of new subscriptions for smartphones, but also by an increase in average data consumption, mainly due to the greater use of video content, which today represent 69% of total traffic, but which could reach 79% in 6 years.
These values translate into an increase in average consumption per device globally, which will reach 11.4 Gb by the end of 2021 and will reach 41 by 2027. A trend that affects all markets in the world in percentages. different, but which will be guided by those Countries and regions that will exploit 5G technology on a large scale before others: the forecast of the experts is that in 2027 the fifth generation networks will carry 62% of the global traffic generated by smartphones. In particular, it will be the strong penetration of 5G that will contribute to a greater use of data, together with the growing diffusion of services based on immersive technology, such as virtual reality and augmented reality, in North America, Western Europe and Northeast Asia; a considerable increase in data traffic was also recorded in India, driven by competitive tariff plans provided by operators, the sale of cheaper devices and the increased time spent online.
Overtaking 5G subscriptions
Northeast Asia is currently characterized by the highest penetration of 5G subscriptions, followed by North America, the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Western Europe. However, penetration in the North American region will reach 90% in 2027 and will be the highest in the world, followed by Western Europe (83%) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (80%). The spread of 5G subscriptions should be faster than 4G, reason the authors of the report: 5G should reach a billion subscriptions two years earlier than previous technology. Between key factors explaining this trend there are the availability of smartphones developed by different companies, the faster drop in prices compared to what happened with 4G devices and the immediate involvement of China.
And if by the end of 2027, experts predict 4.4 billion 5G subscriptions in the world (out of a total of 8.9 billion), 4G subscriptions are expected to decline starting next year, after reaching an estimated peak of 4.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021: the forecast is for a decline to 3.3 billion within the next 6 years, as more people will migrate to fifth generation technologies. However, in some areas of the world, such as India and Central and Eastern Europe, Lte 4G technology will still remain dominant.
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Parallel to the growth in subscriptions, the diffusion of devices that support fifth generation technology has also increased: over 400 5G smartphone models have been put on the market so far and in the tenth quarter of their technological cycle, these terminals now represent 23% of global volumes, compared to 8.7% of 4G terminals in the same period of time.
Furthermore, Fwa connections based on 5G networks are also growing and in 2027 they should represent half of the approximately 230 million connections of this type expected. The abbreviation stands for Fixed Wireless Access, a data transmission system based on a mixed network, partly formed by a wired fiber optic network and partly by a network that uses radio frequencies.
Finally, already this year, IoT broadband (4G / 5G), that is the Internet of Things that uses 4G and 5G technology, is set to surpass 2G and 3G as the segment that allows the world‘s largest share of these applications to operate. This is expected to account for 47% of all cellular IoT connections by the end of 2021, compared to 37% for 2G / 3G and 16% for Massive IoT technologies (NB-IoT and Cat-M).
And if in 2027 the coverage of the world population with 4G networks is expected to reach 95%, those of the fifth generation should provide a coverage to 2 billion people in 2021, ending up reaching 75% of the world population by 2027.
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