The average age of new Covid cases drops to 28 years, “A very low value, lower than last summer’s peak” and that of hospitalized patients also drops to 50 years. Rt is growing due to the Delta variant of the virus, including the hospital one, but for the month of August, employment in the intensive care and medical area is still expected to be “below the critical thresholds of 30% and 40%”. This was highlighted by the president of the ISS, Silvio Brusaferro, during the press conference on the epidemiological trend in the country.
Infections among young people
“The median age at diagnosis” Covid “is 28 years old and we are touching a very low value, even lower than the “minimum” peak we reached last summer. But the median age at first admission is also falling, which is 50 years. The median age for entry into intensive care remains slightly down and the median age at death is a little more unstable and remains above 70 years “. This is the picture drawn by the Iss president during the press conference on the analysis of the data of the Covid regional monitoring of the control room. Occupancy of beds in intensive care and medical areas remains around 2%. “As of July 13, we had 1,128 hospitalized,” he added.
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The tracking of cases and the forecast of quarantines will remain fundamental for Brusaferro in the coming months. «The general picture of the transmission of the infection worsens again with many regions at moderate risk. Fortunately, the impact of the disease on hospitalization remains minimal at this stage. The Delta variant is destined to grow and in other countries it is leading to a large increase in new cases: it is therefore important to trace contacts and foresee quarantines and it is advisable to achieve vaccination coverage with the double dose as soon as possible. This is one of the priorities ».
Growing hospital rt
The contagion index «Rt is growing and goes from 0.66 of the previous week to 0.91 of this week and there are beginning to be regions that with the punctual Rt go above the value of 1 even if all with the lowest confidence interval they are below this threshold. “The increased Rt, that is, projected forward by a week,” reports 1.24. “And hospital Rt is also growing” now and “it is consistent, because this index lags behind the growth of symptomatic Rt.” There are therefore «indicators of a transmission in the regrowth phase. And we know that with Rt above 1 the number of cases tends to increase ». Added the president of the Higher Institute of Health.
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«The evolution in August is expected with an increase in employment in the intensive care and medical area but nevertheless below the critical thresholds of 30% and 40%, but it is possible that occupancy exceeds 10% with hundreds of hospitalized people, this is obviously the worst scenario ».
2.5 million unvaccinated over 60s
At the press conference, Brussaferro then highlighted the significant number of non-vaccinated people over 60, defined as a «critical basin». “In the over 80s, 90% of people have completed a vaccination cycle, but as we decrease in age the share decreases a lot and we know that today in Italy they are 2.5 million people over 60 who have not started vaccination and this is a particularly critical catchment area. It is extremely important that these people protect themselves to avoid the more critical effects of the infection ».
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The challenge of variants and the restart
«The variants» of Sars-CoV-2 «represent the current challenge, but the pandemic was also an extraordinary occasion, in which we were called to strengthen and use all public health tools in a homogeneous way throughout the country. The next 6 months will be decisive to contribute all together to a restart, where public health can continue to guarantee health and well-being to the communities ». This was stated by the president of the Higher Institute of Health, Silvio Brusaferro, during the lecture held today at the opening of the 53rd extraordinary Congress of the Italian Society of Hygiene, Preventive Medicine and Public Health (Siti). “We are also building the future of the youngest, we must ensure that they are protagonists”, concluded Brusaferro.
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