FROM OUR REPORTER
WARSAW – In Warsaw, Joe Biden spoke as the “Commander in Chief” of the entire West. He will be the American president to indicate the path of the new phase of the war. How is the White House moving? Here’s what we get, point by point. The Americans are convinced that the conflict will last much longer, nobody ventures a prediction. In Washington they think that Vladimir Putin is still convinced that he can bend the Ukrainian resistance, even if the Russian army has growing problems. However, cynical but unfortunately relevant observation, the Biden administration believes that Putin will continue to throw fresh troops into the fray, sending them into disarray. The war, therefore, could become even bloodier. The US will supply the necessary weapons. For now, F-16 fighters are excluded. But the position could change as happened with the Abrams tanks.
Negotiation unlikely
At the moment there would be no possibility of negotiations. Nothing is moving. All channels of dialogue with Putin are closed. The US strategy is simple and ambiguous at the same time: to put Ukraine in the best condition on the battlefield. Biden has no intention of formulating any outline for a possible negotiation. The fear is that any American proposal could trigger divisions first in Ukraine and then in the Western bloc. One of the most complicated problems remains Crimea. No one from the administration has spoken officially, but the dominant idea is that it would be very risky for the Ukrainians to try to reconquer the peninsula. The White House believes that this is a “red line” for Putin. His reaction could be devastating. There is no confidence in what Beijing presents as a “peace plan”. For the White House it is simply an attempt to ease the political-diplomatic pressure on Putin.
The Chinese have not even consulted the Ukrainians and therefore, by definition, it is a mediation that cannot go anywhere. Not only. Last Saturday in Monaco, Vice President Kamala Harris said that “China is deepening relations with Russia”. As far as it turns out, the US secret services are preparing a dossier that will be published in the next few days, with the evidence of “this link”. So far the Secretary of State, Antony Blinkhe specified that “there are no signs of Chinese arms supplies to Russia”.
The report card of Italy
Another key theme is the compactness of the European bloc. The Americans have taken note of Germany’s increased commitment. Washington has long considered the government in Berlin to be the least willing to deliver bombs. Now the first place is occupied by others. Maybe, but that’s just an exclusionary deduction from France. On the other hand, the judgment on theItalia. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is said to be “navigating well” among the pro-Russian resistances of Silvio Berlusconi and skepticism of support for Zelensky by Matthew Salvini. Last March 143 countries of the United Nations condemned Putin’s aggression. In the coming days, the UN hemicycle will be called upon to express its opinion on the peace plan developed by Zelensky. According to the accounts in the hands of the Oval Office, the consensus this time could be slightly lower: between 130 and 139 votes.