The periodic reports on air quality drawn up by the various agencies repeat it tirelessly: Italy is blowing bad air. So bad as to cause between 70 and 90 thousand avoidable deaths every year, concentrated above all in that Po Valley stubbornly among the most polluted regions of Europe. If the present is not rosy, the future is even grayer: a study carried out by the National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (Enea), and published in Science Directreveals that in the coming decades the risk of mortality in Rome and Milan could increase by 8% and 6% respectively due to the combined action of air pollution and climate change.
Pollution
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The situation in Rome and Milan
The two metropolises were chosen by researchers for their population size and for the different climatic, socio-economic and pollution conditions. From 2004 to 2015 the total number of deaths from natural causes was 299,493 in Rome and 155,734 in Milan with annual averages of 24,958 and 12,978 respectively. The capital has milder temperatures, low humidity and high ozone levels, while Milan is exposed to colder temperatures, higher humidity and more moderate winds, along with high PM10 levels. “These conditions can have a significant impact on health and mortality risk. In fact, airborne particulate matter is recognized as a carcinogen and is the leading environmental cause of mortality,” he says. Maurizio Gualtieri, researcher at Enea’s Atmospheric Pollution laboratory, recalling that, globally, the number of deaths from air pollution has almost doubled in the last thirty years. In fact, in 2019 it reached 4.5 million deaths, 92% of which due to atmospheric particulate matter and 8% due to ozone.
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The study that tells the effects of climate and pollution
Researchers developed a computational model that integrates regional climate and air quality simulations with a spatial resolution of 20 km². The high spatial detail made it possible to realistically evaluate mortality at the metropolitan area level by 2050, through statistical models of environmental epidemiology. “We have obtained a better understanding of the combined effects of climate and air pollution on health, using as references two IPCC scenarios that assume, by the end of the century, an increase in the average global temperature ranging between 0.4 and 0.8 ° C. in the more sustainable scenario (RCP2.6) and between 3.3 – 4.9 ° C in the business as usual scenario (RCP8.5), which does not foresee substantial changes in greenhouse gas emission trends compared to the past “he explains Melania Michettiresearcher of the Models and technologies division for the reduction of anthropogenic impacts and natural risks of Enea.
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In Rome people will die more in the summer
According to the study, in the next decades Rome could reach 591 deaths a year during the summer months (8% more than in previous decades) due to high temperatures and an ozone concentration above the limit value for the damage to human health. The photochemistry of the atmosphere could, therefore, play an important role in increasing the summer mortality burden, as ozone peaks in the warmer months.
and in Milan in winter
In the Lombard capital, on the other hand, it is estimated that mortality will be higher during the winter (1,787 deaths out of a total of 1,977, equal to 90%) due to the colder climate, higher concentrations of PM10 due to higher combustion emissions and of stagnant atmospheric conditions due to the geographical characteristics of Milan. In Rome the number of deaths due to higher temperatures (mainly in summer) among the over 85 is estimated at 312 cases out of 1,398 annually (22%) while in Milan it is equal to 971 cases attributable to lower temperatures (mainly in winter) out of 1,057 (92%).
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The worsening of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases
Exposure to high and low temperatures represents one of the most relevant stress factors because it causes an increase in mortality, particularly among the most vulnerable subjects of the population such as those over 85. In general, it determines a wide range of health effects ranging from heat stroke to dehydration through the onset or worsening of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. “In addition to improving spatial definition, we went a step further by analyzing the delayed effects on human health for each city and by exposure variable, ie temperature, ozone and particulate matter. It was possible to calculate up to how many days after the the occurrence of a meteorological event or pollution, the exposed population suffers the consequences. For both cities the result is up to 20 days for the temperature and up to 3 days for ozone and PM10 “continues Michetti.
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Cold causes more deaths than heat
Although it may be unexpected, in our country the cold still causes more premature deaths than the heat. “This trend, however, is destined to reverse in the coming decades, even more so if strict policies are not adopted to combat climate change and improve air quality,” notes Michetti, referring to projections based on the second scenario of the IPCC. While they are far more optimistic in terms of reducing the effects of climate change, they are likely less likely, barring a sharp and imminent turnaround in our economies. In the event that humanity manages to contain the increase in average temperatures below 1.5 ° C by the end of the century, the number of premature deaths in Rome would be reduced by 8 times while that of Milan by about 1, 4 compared to the decade 2004-15.