The unofficial images from China are impressive and take us back in time. In fact, it seems to have returned to the early stages of the epidemic when there were no vaccines and hospitals were literally collapsing. But what is happening in China? In Europe, are we at risk of ending up the same way?
China has recently abandoned its Zero Covid policy, i.e. a public health approach that provides for the total eradication of the Sars-CoV2 virus. The Zero Covid measures provide for aggressive tracking, the massive use of tests, the use of lockdowns and obviously a widespread use of personal protective equipment (masks, gloves, etc).
We will never know the reasons that prompted the Chinese government to abandon the Zero Covid policy but we can assume that the protests around the country have certainly played a role, furthermore the Omicron subvariants circulating in this period are much more contagious than the previous ones and therefore more difficult to contain.
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Now that most of the anti-Covid19 measures have been eliminated in China, the virus can practically circulate freely in a population naive from an immune point of view. (naive i.e. without immune memory).
Low vaccination coverage in China
We know that population-level immune memory can be created through the vaccine or after a recovery: the vaccine, unlike the actual disease, does not cause symptoms and deaths. In Europe, millions of people were vaccinated with mRNA vaccines and later contracted the virus in a mild form, building up the so-called hybrid immunity.
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In China, the number of vaccinated subjects is comparable to the European average but with some fundamental differences:
- the vaccines used in China are slightly less effective than the mRNA vaccines used in the West
- the groups at risk are little vaccinated
- vaccines are out of date
These elements combined with very contagious variations constitute the perfect recipe for an extremely violent wave like today’s Chinese one.
Is Europe at risk?
In recent years, a robust hybrid immunity has been built up in the population in Europe; first with vaccines and later with healings. This means that the immune system of the majority of the population is able to deal with Sars-CoV2 and its variants. Despite widespread immunity in the population, many subjects remain at risk of serious consequences in the event of Sars-CoV2 infection, which is why infections should be avoided and viral circulation limited.
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What can we do?
Nothing changes for us citizens, we must continue to be careful in risky situations (crowded unventilated environments, etc.), follow the ministry’s instructions regarding vaccinations and know our possible risk factors (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, etc. ). The Sars-CoV2 virus is circulating in Italy as in China. The Ministry of Health will analyze the samples of Chinese tourists who landed in Italy to confirm that the Covid19 variants are the ‘notè’ ones (Omicron subvariants).
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TAKE HOME MESSAGE:
- The end of the Zero Covid Policy in China has resulted in a huge increase in Covid19 cases and deaths
- The Chinese population has never been exposed to the virus and is vaccinated less efficiently than the West
- Ministry monitors viral sequences arriving from China to ensure they are ‘known’ variants
- The Sars-CoV2 virus is circulating here as it is in China
REF:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00746-0/fulltext
https://www.ft.com/content/fa047a9a-a86e-416c-8d7a-56e7fbeca502
https://www.lombardianotizie.online/primi-tamponi-voli-cina/
Aureliano Stingi, doctor in molecular biology works in the field of precision oncology. He collaborates with the World Health Organization in the battle against Covid19-themed fake news
Instagram: Aureliano _Turn off Twitter: @AurelianoStingi