The number of victims of the Covid-19 pandemic worldwide could be three times higher than the official toll, which from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021 counts 5.9 million deaths from coronavirus. This is the hypothesis advanced by the authors of an analysis published in the journal “The Lancet”. The estimates are based on the so-called “excess mortality”, i.e. the number of deaths more recorded in 2020 and 2021 compared to the average of previous years. As for Italy, the study estimates that 259,000 excess deaths occurred in 2 years, almost double the 137,000 official Covid victims as of December 31, 2021. (COVID: THE LATEST LIVE NEWS – COVID VACCINE: DATA AND GRAPHICS ON ADMINISTRATIONS IN ITALY, REGION BY REGION)
The results of the analysis
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According to the researchers, globally, the number of excess deaths recorded in 2020 and 2021 amounted to 18.2 million, more than three times those included in the Covid death statistic: a number that suggests that the overall impact of the pandemic it may have been greater than estimated. The analysis also shows that excess mortality rates vary widely between countries and within regions.
Specifically, the real death toll appears to have been much higher in some locations, particularly in South Asia (5.3 million excess deaths) and sub-Saharan Africa, than official Covid data suggests. However, the authors stress that more research will be needed to understand the share of excess deaths due directly to the infection and indirect effects of the pandemic, including the impact on health services, and deaths from other diseases or from wider economic impacts. .
In India the highest number of excess deaths: 4.1 million
The search provides global estimates and those of 191 countries and territories (and 252 subnational locations such as states and provinces). Nationally, according to researchers’ estimates, the highest number of excess deaths would have occurred in India (4.1 million), the United States (1.1 million), Russia (1.1 million), Mexico (798 thousand) ), Brazil (792 thousand), Indonesia (736 thousand) and Pakistan (664 thousand). These 7 countries may have accounted for more than half of the global excess deaths caused by the pandemic over the 24-month period. While the highest estimated excess mortality rates were in Andean Latin America (512 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants), Eastern Europe (345 deaths per 100,000), Central Europe (316 deaths per 100,000), Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (309 deaths per 100,000) and Central Latin America (274 deaths per 100 thousand).
Further studies needed
According to the authors of the analysis, insufficient diagnosis due to lack of tests, but also problems with reporting death records may have affected these numbers. “Distinguishing between deaths directly caused by Covid and those that occurred as an indirect result of the pandemic is crucial,” the authors stressed, explaining that “evidence suggests that a significant percentage of excess deaths are a direct result of Covid.” However, the deaths may also have occurred indirectly from causes such as suicide or drug use or a lack of access to health care and other essential services during the pandemic.
“Determining the true death toll of the pandemic is vital for effective public health decision making,” noted lead author of the analysis, Haidong Wang, of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, in the US. “Studies from several countries, including Sweden and the Netherlands, suggest that Covid was the direct cause of most of the excess deaths, but we currently don’t have enough evidence for most locations. Further research will help.”