The Finns went to the polls in the first round of presidential elections and the first national vote after Helsinki’s historic entry into NATO, for a position whose importance has grown in the face of growing tensions with Russia, the neighbor which has become extremely uncomfortable with the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And the almost definitive results that arrived in the evening – also thanks to early voting – saw the former conservative prime minister Alexander Stubb win first place with 27% of the votes, ahead of the former minister Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto of the Green Party, with 25%. The two, favored by the polls, are thus moving towards the run-off scheduled for February 11th, while the far-right candidate of the True Finns Party Jussi Halla-aho exits the race, having reached 19% but too far away to undermine the candidate green and try to enter the second round. For whoever wins in two weeks’ time, the changing geopolitical landscape in Europe will certainly be the main concern. Because although his powers are limited, the president—who also serves as supreme commander of the armed forces—helps direct foreign policy in cooperation with the government. A key task, in the face of deteriorating relations between Moscow and Helsinki: the war in Ukraine pushed Finland to abandon decades of military non-alignment and join NATO in April 2023, with Russia immediately threatening “countermeasures” .
And the diplomatic crisis also runs along the 1,340 kilometers of border shared between the two countries, where Finland observed an increase in the arrivals of irregular migrants last summer. Faced with this influx, Helsinki accused Moscow of using foreigners to launch a “hybrid attack” on the country, and ordered the closure of the eastern border in November. “We are in a situation where Russia and especially Vladimir Putin are using human beings as a weapon,” Stubb said Thursday during the final televised debate, stressing the need to “put the security of the country first.” According to its main rival Haavisto, Finland must “send a very clear message to Russia that this cannot go forward.” Statements a far cry from when, in the post-Cold War period, Helsinki maintained good relations with Moscow. But also from more recent times, when the current president Sauli Niinisto – who will leave after two six-year terms – boasted of his close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, before becoming one of his sharpest critics. All presidential candidates support both Finland’s independence and its new role as a member of NATO. And with similar positions, the elections will focus more on the personalities of the candidates, according to Tuomas Forsberg, a professor of foreign policy at the University of Tampere. “It will be more about the election of an individual, about his credibility,” he said. While they share similar political views, Haavisto and Stubb represent different backgrounds, Forsberg noted. And in the second round of voting between the two, the electoral debates could be decisive.
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