Nothing comparable to last year these days, but in recent days the numbers of the virus have registered a turnaround. Vaccinations are experiencing a stalemate, after the surge in appointments set before the obligation to green pass was triggered in the workplace. And on the other hand, infections are slightly recovering (3,725 those of yesterday).
According to the Civil Protection photograph, there are four Regions at moderate epidemiological risk (Abruzzo, Campania, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Piedmont) and a slight increase in cases is also recorded in Lazio and Lombardy.
What is happening? There are some outbreaks around Italy (also in Bologna, in the Pistoiese, in the Neapolitan area) but the situation is absolutely under control and it is more about variations linked to the increase in mandatory post green pass tampons: 407,715 made yesterday. The positivity rate rises (but always remains below one, from 0.8 to 0.9. “In Italy, the rise in Covid cases is, for now, probably linked to the high number of antigenic swabs that have been triggered from the compulsory green pass in the workplace.
In fact, vaccination coverage is 82% if we consider people with double doses and 86% if we count people with only one dose, waiting for the second administration. Percentages that for months we have considered a mirage and that today guarantee herd immunity that protects us from new waves. The swabs have skyrocketed: in addition to the absolute record of last Tuesday (662 thousand), they are around an average of 500 thousand a day and obviously also “bust” the statistics of the number of positive cases, increased only in proportion to the increase in tests . And hardly ever degenerated into severe cases. So much so that yesterday the deaths were 24. “The situation is under control” assures Silvio Brusaferro, number one of the Higher Institute of Health. The key figure is the positivity rate compared to tampons which remained almost unchanged albeit with a slight increase from 0.6 to 0.8% in the last seven days.
However, since we have learned that prudence is never too much, it is good to keep an eye on two aspects: the first is the arrival of cold and flu, which will lower people’s immune defenses and expose them to infections (especially if they do not vaccinated), the second is what is happening abroad. In England the number of positives is increasing and Russia has a high number of deaths. The transmissibility index of the Delta variant is between 40 and 60% higher than that of last year’s strain when the epidemiological curve was spinning out of control leading to closures and curfews.
A few more problems could create the Delta plus variant, observed special of the moment. In Italy, according to the latest ISS monitoring, it is present «in all regions. As of October 19, 86 sequences had been made ».
The Delta plus “for the moment is not yet worrying but it is under observation because it seems to have an additional contagion capacity compared to the Delta variant which is already disastrous,” said Walter Ricciardi, advisor to the Ministry of Health. The last 4-5 variants all emerged in England, because when you don’t rule you bring out the variants. If the British were not vaccinated they would not have 200 deaths a day but they would have two thousand ».