From the latest administrative elections a complex and difficult to analyze picture emerges at the national level. And, as evidenced by the report of theCattaneo Institute, “it was not possible to estimate the flows between individual parties with sufficient reliability”. The first consideration made concerns abstention, which, although high, has had a less pronounced decline compared to the previous session. And this is because, the analyzes observe, “overall, the commitment of the leaders and the non-obvious nature of the results” have contributed to making people go to the polls more. In general then, a trend was noted: M5 voters were more inclined to support centre-left candidates (except for Pisa and Vicenza), while those of Action and Italia viva have moved to the right. The considerations, however, are different from city to city.
A Bresciafor example, 54.8 percent of the votes received by the centre-left winner Laura Castelletti derives “from a higher contribution of centre-left voters (Pd, Sin, +Eur, A-Iv) in 2022 (42%) than the contribution obtained by centre-right voters in 2022 by its antagonist Fabio Rolfi (34.6), also by virtue of a lower abstention rate among the former than the latter”. But not only that, observes Cattaneo, also “from the support received from voters who in 2022 had voted for M5s (about 4.5% of the valid votes in 2023) despite the presence of a five-star candidate for mayor”. A situation similar to Ancona. “In the capital of the Marches we find a dynamic similar to that observed in Brescia”, writes Cattaneo with reference to the M5s support for the centre-left, “with the difference that here the centre-right voters did not abstain and went en masse to vote, almost all for Daniele Silvetti”. A trend also confirmed in Latina where there was “the landslide victory of Fdi”. “However, the greater propensity, in this phase, by the pentastellati voters to support the center-left candidates or to abstain and a greater tendency to relocate towards the center-right of a part of the Azione-Italia viva voters remains confirmed”.
The situation in Vicenza is different. “In this case, the dynamic that led to the encouraging result of the centre-left candidate seems partially different. Here too the centre-left was favored by higher loyalty and lower abstention among its 2022 voters”. However, “a large part of the votes given to the center-right come from former Azione-Italia viva voters (to an extent that cannot be precisely estimated)”. And Possamai “however seems to have attracted many more votes from abstention (also thanks to the civic lists) than from the M5S”. Another case apart is that of Pisa, where there was no so-called Schlein effect. “If he had generally been overestimated in the expectations of the eve, in Pisa it could have had some impact“, reads the report. “In Pisa the center-right has always been a minority, in political, European and regional elections”. And “Pisa was the city in which the ‘recomposition and remobilisation of the left’ promoted by the new leader of the Democratic Party could have brought the electoral balance of the municipal councils closer to that of the political elections”. Instead, it was the centre-right who narrowly missed out on winning the first round. “And the result is produced by the lack of contribution to the centre-left candidacy by so much Action-IV voters of 2022 as much as on the part of 5-star voters“.
Finally, according to various analysts, it was the judgment on the various mayoral candidates that prompted voters to make their own decisions in the administrations on Sunday and Monday. Experts, scholars and research centers have all agreed that “the Melon effect” o “the Schlein effect” was very limited. “The Schlein effect had been overestimated on the eve and it didn’t occur in Pisa – he commented to Ansa Salvatore Vassallodirector of the Cattaneo – where it could have had some impact. There may have been a Meloni effect in Ancona. Definitely in Latin“. But here we stop even if overall “the remobilisation produced by Schlein has helped the Democratic Party. But, by the way, obviously less than what helps the president of the council in office “. According to Lorenzo Pregliasco of Youtrend and Andrea Paparo, del Cise-Luiss, the impact of the two leaders did not exist: “Schlein needed it more than Meloni – analyzes Pregliasco – and in this sense this session is a missed opportunity for the Dems”. “The weight of the national political context was missing – explains Paparo –, today it wasn’t there. It can be said that the centre-right’s honeymoon is over, but the opposition is still unable to capitalise. In the absence of national drivers, territorial demands prevail”.
In short, the judgment of the voters prevailed on the candidates in the field, or on how the outgoing mayor administered. For example in Brescia, Cattaneo highlighted, the detachment of the center-left from the center-right has increased significantly compared to the policies of 2022 due to the judgment on the work of mayor Emilio del Bono. “Emilio effect” more than Schlein effect. In any case, Pregliasco and Paparo explain, from the first round comes a confirmation of the current political situation, with the centre-right in front: out of the 91 major centres, over 15,000 inhabitants, 23 went to the centre-right, 15 to the centre-left, another 13 to civic mayors, while a ballot will be required for 40. But this “will be another game” concluded Paparo, because he will lack “the driving effect that the candidates for municipal councils have in the collection of votes in favor of their own list”. In this sense, the experts agree, the centre-left could overturn the result of the first round.