The Omicron variant is less severe than the Delta? Since this new mutation from the original virus appeared in late November, this is the question scientists around the world have been asking.
They were trying to answer this charade two studies, conducted separately in Scotland and in South Africa, which were carried over from the Wall Street Journal then quickly traveling around the world.
For the study conducted in Scotland referencing health data from over 5 million people, the Omicron variant could cause the 66% fewer hospitalizations than Delta. In South Africa they came to the same conclusion but the lower severity rate was estimated to be between 70 and 80%.
But that doesn’t mean we don’t have to worry about the Omicron variant: the greater diffusion capacity could equalize a possible lower virulence, not to mention the unknown factor linked to the ability of the vaccines currently in use to avoid hospitalizations.
What risks from the Omicron variant?
Both the studies carried out in Scotland and in South Africa on Omicron also agree on another thing: to have certainties regarding the virulence of this new variant more data is needed.
In the meantime, we know that the Omicron variant in less than a month has rapidly spread to 80 countries, infecting more people on average than the Delta.
However, if we think that in a country like Italy the sequencing it is practically almost non-existent, it is clear that the picture is still very unclear.
If indeed Omicron was more contagious but with mild symptoms, then for scientists we could be facing that long-awaited breakthrough: the new variant could soon become dominant and endemic, thus making the Flu-like Covid.
However, we do not know if this hint is due to the fact that i vaccines at this moment they are somehow weakening the danger of the variant.
In addition, if Omicron were really more contagious than the Delta even among the immunized, then this sort of advantage could be eliminated: if the new variant were to produce triple or quadruple the cases, in the end we could equally have a number of hospitalizations equal to the feared Delta.
It would not be a coincidence that in the West all countries are returning to arm themselves: in Italy the Government is ready for a new squeeze, with the duration of the green pass that should be shortened and the vaccine that could become mandatory for other categories of workers: the goal is to accelerate in the third doses in order not to risk a new Covid wave.
