Waiting to know the moves of the central banks, in early May, the lists move little
2′ of reading
The Tokyo Stock Exchange begins trading with little change, following the fluctuating trend of the US stock indexes, with investors awaiting more indications from the quarterly season. The reference Nikkei list opens at 28,650.73 (+0.03%). On the foreign exchange front, the dollar appreciates to its highest level in over a month against the yen, at 134.10, and against the euro, the Japanese currency trades at 147.10. The Chinese stock exchanges open the session just below parity: the Shanghai Composite index drops by 0.08% in the first few moments, slipping to 3,390.64 points, while that of Shenzhen shows a decline of 0.24%, to 2,133 ,63. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange returns to trading with a slight decline: the Hang Seng index marks a drop of 0.08% to 20,633.00 points in the very first few moments.
After a few weeks of fear on the financial markets due to the banking crisis that began in the USA and exploded in Switzerland with the rescue of Credit Suisse, calm has returned to the financial markets. Not that the risks in the US banking system have run out (as the data show), but the market has set aside the problems and has been floating for days without a precise direction. In this context of general calm, today the European lists are preparing to open their doors – according to what the futures indicate – up/down. This is after the Asian Stock Exchanges….
Eyes on Central Banks
Final data for March (preliminary ones have already been released) on Eurozone inflation will arrive today. The final data are never a real market mover (unless there are surprises), but the markets will keep an eye on it to understand how far central banks can tighten the monetary policy belt. Because this is the topic of the moment. Expectations are now once again discounting higher probabilities of rate hikes.
For example in the US. If a few weeks ago the market assigned just 50% probability to a rate hike by the Fed at its meeting on May 3, and in any case that was considered the last one, now expectations are back more aggressive. Currently, the market assigns approximately 88% of the probability to a 25 basis point hike, but it has also returned to hypothesizing (with just 10-15% of the probability) a subsequent hike. A sign that the market believes that banking risks have faded. And also the economic ones.
Today’s events
Low day of economic data. In the Eurozone, Acea presents the data relating to the month of March on car registrations in Europe. Then comes the March inflation in Great Britain and the final one (the preliminary figure has already been released) of the Eurozone. Eyes on the US quarterly: Morgan Stanley arrives today.
To view this contentopen the page on breakinglatest.news
View on breakinglatest.news