It was the first show of force that expanded the war into a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, with America’s crucial intervention. Each of the three leaderships has “proved” something to its constituencies. Now Joe Biden’s efforts aim to stop the spiral of retaliation, the watchword is de-escalation. He has a logic that could convince Netanyahu and the ayatollahs.
Iran had to respond to the killing of its military leaders at a diplomatic post in Syria. Western media tends to focus on that part of Iranian civil society that is against the Islamist regime, especially women who rebel against oppression. The ayatollahs must respond to another part of Persian society, fundamentalist and fanatical, anti-Semitic and aggressive. In the clerical regime an extremist wing presses on and accuses those it considers moderates. Tehran wanted to indicate to Israel a “red line” not to be crossed. It did so with a show of force, a show of the destructive capacity of its vast arsenal of missiles and drones.
Half a success. On the one hand, Supreme Leader Khamenei and his military did not want to inflict excessive human harm on the Israelis. The precision with which US intelligence predicted the date of the attack may have been favored by remote-controlled leaks. However, Tehran suffered two setbacks: the effectiveness of the Israeli defensive shield and the Anglo-American intervention minimized the damage. Now Iran has no interest in an escalation that could highlight the inferiority of its military technologies even more clearly. Better to return to the previous box: the “proxy wars” conducted through Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, which for years have surrounded both Israel and Saudi Arabia with hostile forces.
In the long term, the strategic objective remains the one formulated by Ayatollah Khomeini after taking power in 1979: destroy Israel, overthrow the Saudi monarchy, conquer Mecca. From a rational point of view, Biden’s call for de-escalation coincides with Iranian interest; at the same time the regime’s fanatical constituency may be disappointed by the modest results of the rain of missiles and drones. Then there is the unknown of the Israeli response.
Netanyahu is the first recipient of Biden’s calls for de-escalation. As a matter of law, at this point it is Israel’s turn to strike back at Iran. The principle that Israel should not let the missile attack launched directly by Iran against its territory go unpunished is legitimate. The fact that the rain of drones and missiles was largely neutralized and the damage toll was limited do not detract from the gravity of the attack. However, Biden is trying to make weight the double military aid provided by Washington and London: first the intelligence, then the interception and destruction of part of the Iranian missiles by the Anglo-American forces.
Furthermore, Biden’s call for de-escalation speaks to the Israeli public and other parts of the government. The priorities for many of them remain the release of the hostages and the destruction of Hamas. Iran can wait. The good evidence provided by anti-missile defense systems is reassuring. Tel Aviv can claim to have demonstrated that it does not fear an expansion of the conflict to an Iranian front (in addition to those in Gaza, and against Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon); but it has no interest in seeking this enlargement. The only logic for continuing to strike Iran may be another: sending warnings against the maneuvers of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution who at this stage are sending weapons and ammunition to the Palestinians in the West Bank to incite them to an armed revolt.
Of the three actors, Biden is the one who has the greatest interest in de-escalation. With the intervention of the US Navy and other American military resources against the Iranian attack, he has appeased the part of American public opinion that wants to defend Israel. But the president is pressed in his home by the pro-Palestinian component: he is increasingly stronger, he makes himself heard in the election campaign, he is pushing for America to reduce aid to Israel and focus on the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza.
On Iran, Biden has no illusions. In the long term, the Iranian antagonism that has haunted America since 1979 will need to be resolved. Tehran’s objectives – eliminating Israel, subjugating Arabia – require the expulsion of the US from the Middle East. For now, Biden just needs to gain six and a half months, how many are left until the vote.