Russia claims it can create its own independent Internet, not connected to the international one. Having ascertained that this is possible on a technological level, it remains to be established what repercussions this unlikely eventuality may have at home and abroad.
Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin is convinced that the Internet is a CIA project, a tool with which the West gives a taste of its power. What consequences can this presidential paranoia have? We talked about it with Stefano Quintarelli, computer scientist and, among other things, from 2014 to 2021 president of the steering committee of the Agency for digital Italy: “Believing that the Internet is a CIA project is something that cannot be heard. A separation of the Internet is not feasible, because the Internet is global by definition and when it is detached, only local resources could be consulted, but the software would no longer be updated and all the evolution that occurs in the rest of the world would be lost. By detaching from the Internet, a country would remain technologically at stake. Furthermore, the systems and software we use are constantly updated, whoever detaches from these updates would in fact regress, opening up to new problems and vulnerabilities ”.
The conflict
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The breaking latest news stresses that an isolated Internet would be unsustainable for the Russian people and a boomerang for Putin. Isolating a people does not seem to be a viable solution. It would be impossible to communicate with foreign countries and all the devices we use would soon become unusable. Just to mention two well-known realities: Google and Apple would no longer be reachable, mobile and medical devices, alarm systems, smart appliances and others would be destined for the dustbin.
Russia exports oil and gas, steel and many other commodities such as palladium, platinum, gold, silver, wheat and cereals. Imagining an international negotiation done exclusively by telephone or fax is anachronistic. The blow to the world economy would be severe, made even more thunderous by the risk of going back only with difficulty. As complex as it may be to impose a rift on the Internet, putting it back together is a long and much more difficult process.
What will be the future of the Internet in Russia? Is there a danger of a Russian-Chinese coalition?
The risk that, completely isolated from the rest of the world, Russia could create commercial channels with China to also procure software and hardware must be ruled out. “If China were to sell technologies to Russia to circumvent any sanctions, it would in turn be sanctioned and this does not want it – explains Quintarelli – rather it would leave the Russian market, given that it represents a few percentage points of the market. I don’t think China would violate any embargoes, because the world would not stand by and watch. When there was the Huawei case (China’s sale of hardware to Iran, then under embargo, which happened in 2018, ed.) even Meng Wanzhou, financial director and daughter of the Chinese company’s founder, was arrested in Canada “. A partnership between China and Russia would not remain confined to relations between Moscow and Beijing and, Quintarelli underlines, “for China the Russian market is worth very little compared to that of the rest of the world”.
The Russians have only Clubhouse left
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On the other hand, about the future of the Internet in Russia two scenarios arisewith or without Putin at the helm of the Federation after the conflict with Ukraine: “If Putin stays, any isolation from the Internet will probably be limited in a similar way to that of China with its large firewall and communications control.”
Russia-Ukraine conflict and satellite communication attacks
by Pierluigi Paganini
The affair of the International Telecommunication Union
In October 2022 there will be votes for the renewal of the presidency of ITU, the International Telecommunications Union, a United Nations agency based in Geneva that oversees telecommunications standards. According to some media, the fact that the Russian Rashid Ismailov is also among the candidates may have repercussions, in the event of an election, on the hypothetical question of the Russian disconnection from the Internet. We need to clarify. Stefano Quintarelli is of different opinion: “The Itu has no weight in the governance of the internet and I doubt that today a Russian can aspire to any international position”.
Social
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In Russia, the Internet is shrinking
However, it is currently true that the Internet in Russia is shrinking: social media inaccessible by their own will or by the Kremlin and selective censorship that allows Moscow to spread a unilateral view of the conflict among the Russian people. This is how alternative methods of communication are born, including pilots of airliners who use the intercom to send anti-war messages, journalists who pay the price for the right information, users who use Google Maps or Tinder to show Russians photos of wounded people and devastated Ukrainian cities. The ways of improvisation are endless: “There are organized groups of hackers who violate networks of Russian companies and use printers to spread newsletters that employees, upon entering the office, will be able to read”, concludes Quintarelli.