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The flu season has passed its peak and the number of cases has begun to decline. In the first week of the year there were almost 980 thousand flu-like syndromes, around 100 thousand less than 7 days earlier, when the seasonal maximum was recorded with an incidence of 18.3 cases per 1,000 inhabitants, a record value never achieved in previous seasons. This was revealed by the bulletin of the RespiVirNet surveillance system of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità which together with the Ministry of Health also updated the data on Covid, once again decreasing both in terms of number of cases and impact on hospitals.
Peak passed, but circulation still sustained
«Both the epidemiological and microbiological data seem to indicate that we are passing the peak, even if a sustained circulation is highly probable also in the coming weeks, facilitated by the reopening of schools – comments Anna Teresa Palamara, who directs the Infectious Diseases department of the ISS -. We therefore continue to recommend vaccinations for the people most at risk, still useful in view of the ‘tail’ of the season which will still last several weeks, and healthy prudence in behavior. The recommendation remains valid not to take antibiotics, which are useless in case of viral infections, unless advised by your doctor, and to go to the emergency room only if strictly necessary”. As mentioned, in the first week of 2024 the incidence fell to 16.5 cases per thousand assisted, while in the previous week the peak was reached with 18.3 (updated data compared to that released last week following notification delays ). The proportion of flu-positive samples out of the total samples analyzed also fell (34% vs 46%).
Incidence drops among children, only two regions with high intensity
The incidence is clearly decreasing in the pediatric age groups and more so in children under five years of age where the incidence is equal to 33.6 cases per thousand assisted (47.2 in the previous week), stable in adults and elderly. All the Regions, among those that have activated surveillance, record – the bulletin warns – a level of incidence of flu-like syndromes above the baseline threshold. However, the regions in which the “very high” intensity threshold of incidence has been reached are down to two: Abruzzo and Sardinia. «Although it is always difficult to make predictions on the progress of the season, such a sharp decline suggests that the peak has been reached – says Antonino Bella, head of RespiVirNet epidemiological surveillance and editor of the epidemiological bulletin -. However, ‘upward’ fluctuations are possible, especially in children, favored by the reopening of schools.”
Sharp decline in Covid cases, less impact on hospitals
Sharp decline in Covid cases in Italy in the week between 4 and 10 January with a total of 20,945 new positives for a variation of -45.9%. Deaths also decreased, with 355 deaths recorded in the same period of time and a variation of -4.3% compared to the previous week. the Ministry of Health, according to which the employment rate in the medical area on 10 January was 8.2% (5,131 hospitalised), compared to 10.1% (6,320 hospitalised) on 3 January, while on the same date the rate occupancy in intensive care is at 2.4% (213 hospitalised) compared to 2.8% (246 hospitalised) also on 3 January. «This week’s data – comments the Ministry’s Director General of Health Prevention, Francesco Vaia – highlight a further slowdown in the spread of Covid, which is also reflected in the reduction in the occupancy rate of hospital facilities, both in the medical area and in therapy intensive. A result that we must consolidate by continuing to protect the most vulnerable through vaccination which, remember, it is possible to receive at the same time as the anti-flu vaccination, which is particularly important given the trend of recent weeks.”