Covid has not yet been defeated, but for months the pandemic has been doing less and less damage and advancing towards the so-called endemic, coexistence with the virus. That since the advent of the Omicron variant has become much more contagious, but puts less and less pressure on hospitals. There are two signs that bode well: the infections are growing, but between immunizations and people already infected, it spreads with less intensity as can be seen in this mini wave of October which, after 4 weeks, has already begun to descend. And then the hospitalizations grow, but many patients (today they are 64%) discover positivity with a swab in the hospital where they are not because of Covid, but for other reasons. The only variable that can call everything into question is a new, more pathogenic variant.
The mini-wave of autumn already begins the descent
The first wave of the third autumn with Covid officially began in mid-September when the infections began to rise after a small respite at the end of August: 120,057 new positives in the week from 14 to 20 September (they were 107 thousand the week before) to then rise to 168,829 from 21 to 27 September and again to 244,353 from 28 September to 4 October up to 293,902 new infections from 5 to 11 October. Now in the last week, that from 12 to 18 October, the cases have begun to descend: in all, 274,983 new positives have been recorded (almost 10% less than the week before). In short, in this first mini autumn wave, it reached its peak already after a month and should not leave big aftermath at the hospital level and in victims (which, however, have returned to exceed 100).
Hospitalizations are growing, but many not due to Covid
Today in the hospital wards – according to the latest monitoring by Fiaso, the Federation of health and hospital companies, on its sentinel hospitals – almost two thirds of Covid positive patients (64%) are not hospitalized because they have the typical symptoms of the virus such as pneumonia or breathing problems, but because they found they were positive after taking a swab before surgery or hospitalization for another reason. And in any case, serious patients – those in intensive care – grow little: today there are 254 those in resuscitation (they were 224 a week ago), in the heaviest waves they were even 10 times more. “We record – confirms the president of Fiaso, John Best – a growth almost entirely borne by positive patients but without symptoms typical of Covid, who arrive at the hospital to treat other diseases “. “This trend, if confirmed – continues Migliore – would mean that we are facing an endemization of Covid: the virus circulates a lot, but meets the immune defenses of the vast majority of the population who have received the vaccination and the boosters or have already contracted the ‘infection”.
The only variable is the arrival of a more pathogenic variant
As the pandemic has gone so far, the path taken by the virus increasingly seems to be that of greater contagiousness and less pathogenicity. But the variants must always be kept under observation also for their ability to evade the protection of vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. Since the end of January, Omicron and its sub-variants, very contagious but less dangerous, have dominated the scene. But everything can change as the virologist pointed out in recent days Anthony Fauci which did not hide the concern for the most recent variants, BQ.1 and its sub-variant BQ.1.1 According to President Biden’s advisor on the pandemic, which is also about to retire, the complex and uncertain picture is created by ” the rate of increase of these two variants, which appear to double rapidly despite their appearance a month ago. Fauci also said he was concerned that these new versions of the virus will not respond to available antibody-based therapies.