Niger has closed its airspace “in the face of the increasingly clear threat of intervention”. The coup leaders say so. The ultimatum imposed by Ecowas expires at midnight local time, one hour after Italian midnight.
Much behind the scenes, work continues to avert a war that would be fratricidal above all with Nigeria and would inflame the already devastated Sahel, even involving the Maghreb: a scenario so fearsome as to be unlikely, at least in the short term.
On the other hand, the Russian flags that waved in one s are back in the limelightfestive stadium in Niamey packed with almost 30,000 pro-coup supporters, harangued by one of the leaders of the junta who warned them not of any raids by the Nigerian air force but of phantom subversive infiltrators. In a suspended atmosphere, a declaration was awaited by the Economic Community of West African States upon the expiry of the seven-day ultimatum launched against the coup plotters on Sunday 30 July, four days after the coup: restore democracy or an “act of force” cannot be ruled out “, had been the message from the blockade.
And so we prepare for any eventuality: 65 soldiers from the Italian training mission in Niger, the “Misin”, have returned to Italy to “increase the logistical autonomy of the Italian base”, “also optimizing its accommodation capacities if it becomes necessary to accommodate and, in an emergency, evacuate” the forty or so Italians, especially experienced NGO operators, who remained in the country. “According to most analysts, a conflict appears improbable, at least in the short term”, argues however the New York Times giving substance to what seems to be only a wish of Nigerian Prime Minister Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou: “A positive solution is still possible – he said from Paris -, in any negotiation, anything can happen until the deadline is reached. The last minutes are crucial”. After all, with Niger, “culturally, religiously, we are almost equal. It would be like fighting a brother”, also noted General Christopher Gwabin Musa, Chief of Defense Staff of Nigeria, the most powerful of the Ecowas states.
Algiers is also warning of a conflict, Niger’s northern neighbor and militarily tied to Russia: “We categorically reject any military intervention” which would constitute “a direct threat to Algeria”, said President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. The Russian flags fluttered in Niamey fueling Bazoum’s fears: the coup plotters could open the country’s doors to the Russian Wagner mercenaries as Mali certainly did which, together with its Burkina Faso associate, threatened to enter war in the event of an attack on Niger. In the largest stadium in the capital, the crowd was harangued by General Mohamed Toumba who denounced those who “hide in the shadows” and who “plot subversion” against “Niger’s march forward”: “We are aware of their Machiavellian plan”, warned the big shot of the Cnsp, the military junta.
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