The Patriot system has shot down a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile: the episode was first denied and then celebrated by the Ukrainians, as if it were the outcome of a battle. A satisfaction motivated by the emergency: for months Kiev admitted it had no answers against carriers launched on cities and factories.
The KH47 M2 – this is the acronym – is one of new weapons publicly praised by Vladimir Putin. Launchable from a MIG 31 fighter flying over Russian territory, it is very manoeuvrable and fast, making it difficult to counter. The Army started using it after the invasion along with other ordnance in the campaign of terror and destruction. The Ukrainians have deployed the few apparatuses available, unable to stop this type of threat as well as that of the Iskanders. The alliance then finally provided April with some Patriots, useful for engaging targets such as the Kinzhal and aircraft that “shoot” from long range. So at 2.04 on May 4th there was the interception in the skies of the capital. A “center” accompanied by photos of wreckage and the media headline: Americans won the first round. A result considered by the experts to be even greater, since the model provided by the allies is not one of the newer versionstherefore the implications also affect the NATO command.
The Patriot, developed in the 1980s, was tested in the two conflicts with Iraq, in Israel and in Yemen with mixed results. It’s certainly not infallible, some observers recall the “holes” against Saddam’s Scuds during Desert Storm. Stories of the past. Now the Americans, Germans and Dutch have made a small share of batteries available to Kiev, arrived around mid-April, to be used sparingly given the “price”. Each missile costs a million dollars. The problem for resistance is that the means available are few for a vast territory. And the other devices that have arrived – such as the German Iris T and Nasams – are insufficient, while in the summer it is expected the deployment of the Franco-Italian Samp/Twhose staff is undergoing training.
Having a real umbrella against Russia’s aeronautical dominance is only one of Zelensky’s concerns. Starting with the main: there are too many expectations on the offensive. The warning, not unprecedented, was entrusted to messengers who reach a vast audience: the New York Times and the Washington Post. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov conceded an interview with two American newspapers trying to calm expectations. The coalition of donors has made available a good arsenal and now hopes that the resistance can achieve success. But if he fails to obtain it – is the reasoning – external support could gradually wane. The government is aware that help is not forever. Furthermore there is the unknown factor of the American vote, in November 2024, with a portion of the Republicans much more lukewarm than the Democrats. If Donald Trump were to return, it could be even worse.
Rezhnikov’s prudence is echoed by the judgment of a politician with military knowledge. The Czech president, former general Petr Pavel, has called on Kiev to avoid misstepsnot to be in a hurry to engage in an operation without having sufficient forces. A failure of the operation would have serious repercussions, the window of opportunity would close – as he had already said some time ago. Some commentators add that Vladimir Putin aims to contain his opponents until the summer in that it believes that it is the peak moment after which NATO could “scale up” in support.
They are interpretations with plausible notes but that they can then be overturned by warlike developments. And speaking of forecasts, those of the expert David Helms are interesting: the ground will be dry and free from mud from the second half of May. Favorable conditions in at least five sectors, where the movements of armored and armored vehicles are expected.
The statements are evidence of pragmatism mixed with tactical moves in order not to give too much information to the enemy who listens and observes. Much has already been said, too much: think of the announcements about the arrival of new tanks, self-propelled guns, missiles. AND even the “hit” of the Patriot can be studied by the invaders. On the other hand, the resistance has continued, even in these hours, with drone raids on Russian territory and in the occupied areas. Many explosions, fires, problems with logistics routes. A parallel offensive.