[오늘의 투자전략] KOSPI starts rising around 0.7%… “Attempt to settle 2600 in foreign supply and demand”

Experts predicted that the KOSPI would show a solid appearance after starting to rise by around 0.7% on the 5th, paying attention to Chinese economic indicators and foreign supply and demand.

◇Seo Sang-young, researcher at Mirae Asset Securities= Last Friday, the domestic stock market started higher as the possibility of a rate freeze at the June FOMC increased through various indicators. As the won-dollar exchange rate fell by 15.90 won to close at 1305.70 won, it is interpreted that foreign supply and demand had a favorable effect and increased the rate of increase.

The U.S. stock market is expected to have a positive impact on the domestic stock market as the positive outlook for the economy has emerged, such as easing concerns over economic recession through the employment report. In particular, the fact that the Russell 2000 index, which had been sluggish reflecting concerns over the economic recession, soared 3.56 percent is a factor that improves investor sentiment. In addition, the Dow Transportation Index also rose 1.95%, which is positive.

However, the 0.15% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is a burden. This is due to profit taking rather than the influx of negative factors, so it is expected that the domestic stock market will also proceed with the process of selling related stocks. Of course, looking at details in the employment report, the fact that consumption is still progressing reasonably and manufacturing is slowing could stimulate concerns about the future US economy.

◇Han Ji-young, researcher at Kiwoom Securities= Based on the closing price of last Friday, the KOSPI entered the 2600 range in about a year, and the 200-week line, which served as a long-term resistance line, has broken upward again.

This stock price momentum is expected to continue this week, and it is expected to try to settle in the 2600 line while digesting macro events such as the US employment index, the US ISM service industry PMI, China’s import and export G2 economic indicators, and the RBA monetary policy meeting during the week.

However, it is necessary to prepare for short-term stock price volatility as the supply and demand of spot futures by foreigners and institutions change rapidly around the simultaneous expiration of domestic futures options (the 8th) scheduled for later in the week. From an industry perspective, it is expected that market interest will also be drawn to the direction of stock prices of semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which have recently returned to leading stocks in the domestic stock market thanks to favorable news from Nvidia.

Short-term share price surges may cause share prices to retrace due to profit taking in these stocks. However, downside rigidity is not expected to be impaired, given expectations that these stocks will bottom out and foreign net purchases are increasing.