by Francesco Giappichini –
What remains of 2023 will be crucial not only for Argentina, but for Latin America as a whole. The presidential elections of 22 October, preceded by the primaries of 13 August, will show whether the advance of the left in Latin America is resting on solid foundations, or whether we are only witnessing the game of political alternation. It will then be observed whether political forces attributable to the extreme right can also have a future in the country of the tango, and whether, in the name of the fight against inflation, the path of dolarización will be chosen. Let’s go in order, remembering that the successor of the Peronist president Alberto Fernández, who has announced that he will not run again, will take office on 10 December.
According to the study by the Centro estratégico latinoamericano de geopolítica, 70% of Argentines experience current events with “anger, disappointment or uncertainty”; while as many as 77% evaluate negatively the government supported by the Frente de todos alliance, which is led by the Partido justicialist of Peronist ideology. Although it is premature to make predictions about the new tenant of the Casa Rosada, one can observe how much this gloomy scenario affects the polls. According to the latest surveys, we see the deputy and economist Javier Milei in the lead. This is the founder and leader of the Partido libertario (PL), which beyond the libertarian and ultra-liberal theses, most Argentine political scientists place on the extreme right.
Milei is an over the top media personality who supports (shouting) the well-known anti-caste theory on talk shows, but above all the proposal of the dollarization of the economy, as the only antidote to record inflation. However, other economists point out that in a possible currency substitution, one should start from a monstrous quotation of 7,000 pesos per dollar. And if Milei’s performance is a surprise, it is even more striking that Juntos por el Cambio is imposing itself as the second force: the liberals led by former president Mauricio Macri. And in particular, there would be a moderate consensus for Patricia Bullrich, the Minister of Security during the Macri administration (’15-’19).
However, as the chroniclers of the gaucha nation repeat, already in view of the Paso primaries (Primarias, abiertas, simultáneas y obligatorias), the Peronists will be able to mobilize the camel troops. And it can be predicted that one of their men will fight for victory to the last, perhaps in the November 19 run-off. Whether it is Economy Minister Sergio Massa (surprise also supported by the progressive faction of the Kirchnerists), or perhaps the governor of the province of Buenos Aires Axel Kicillof: the brilliant economist and former minister, known as the “cara guapa de la economía argentina ”. In the months that remain, Argentines will therefore have to face the shock of Fernandez’s failed re-nomination, politically overwhelmed by an economic crisis, which has been aggravated by the worst drought in the last 60 years. And they will have to deal with galloping inflation, caused essentially by the unsustainability of the public debt; even if local politicians prefer more naive explanations, attributable to psychological aspects, speculation or the inertia of inflation. The 12-month rate reached 108.8%, or the third value in the world, after Venezuela and Lebanon. And the local food price index is the second highest, for a sad ranking that sees Lebanon, Argentina, Zimbabwe and Iran in that order.