China Expands Nuclear Arsenal, Aims for 1,000 Warheads by 2030, Says Pentagon Report
The U.S. Department of Defense has released its annual China Military Power Report, revealing that China has significantly increased its nuclear arsenal over the past year. According to the report, China currently possesses approximately 500 combat warheads and aims to double that number to more than 1,000 warheads by 2030.
Despite this expansion, the report notes that China remains committed to a “no first attack” policy. However, experts have pointed out that China’s nuclear arsenal is still far smaller than that of Russia and the United States. Russia possesses approximately 5,889 nuclear warheads, while the United States has 5,244, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
A senior U.S. Department of Defense official stated that while China’s warhead numbers are not expected to deviate significantly from previous projections, their total number of warheads is anticipated to exceed those projections. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it clear since assuming power in 2012 that China aims to build a “world-class military” by 2049, a goal that involves modernizing China’s military capabilities.
The Pentagon report further highlights China’s efforts to develop a nuclear arsenal on a scale and complexity that surpasses its past attempts. U.S. officials have revealed that China is likely to complete the construction of three new missile base groups by 2022, with at least 300 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos. These ICBMs, having a range of over 5,500 kilometers, would enable China to threaten targets in the U.S. mainland, as well as Hawaii and Alaska, with conventional strikes.
The report also mentions that China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force is seeking to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of threatening the U.S. mainland, further indicating China’s ambition to enhance its military reach.
While the growth rate of China’s nuclear arsenal may not be deemed unusual, experts argue that China is progressing towards its goal of 1,000 warheads slightly faster than expected. The development of new technologies like hypersonic missiles is driving China to reconsider its second-strike policy, leading to the expansion of its warhead stockpile.
Moreover, the Pentagon report highlights China’s increased diplomatic, political, and military pressure on Taiwan. Reports suggest that President Xi Jinping has ordered the Minister of Defense to strengthen military capabilities with the goal of forcibly retaking Taiwan by 2027. The report also mentions China’s deployment of ballistic missiles flying over Taiwan, increased flights into Taiwanese airspace, and military exercises conducted near Taiwanese waters as part of an effort to destabilize the island.
These findings come at a time when Sino-U.S. diplomatic relations are strained. Washington recently accused Chinese air force pilots of engaging in numerous “coercive and dangerous” maneuvers against U.S. military aircraft in international airspace over the Pacific. The Pentagon has released videos and photos showing these exercises and has reported 180 incidents since the fall of 2021.
As China continues to expand its nuclear arsenal and assert its military dominance, concerns grow about the implications for regional and global security. The United States and its allies will likely closely monitor China’s actions and adapt their defense strategies accordingly.