A long and winding journey in stages. Under the banner of postponements and with old and new obstacles to overcome, starting with those of costs and frictions within the majority, and beyond. This is the one on which the Orlando shock absorber reform project has been channeled for weeks. That the Minister of Labor tried to lock up on 9 August, meeting suddenly the social partners with the aim of obtaining a sort of pre-agreement. But at the end of the meeting the various positions turned out to be substantially unchanged, also because the real financial impact of the plan on which also depends the placement of the contribution rates that will feed the new universal income support instrument in version enlarged.
The objectives of the majority are clearer
An intricate skein that is also affected by the tensions over the future anti-relocation decree and the reconfiguration of citizenship income. And that, at this point, it can only be unraveled in September when the technical investigation on the composition of the budget law expected in mid-October will be formally launched. But in the meantime, the objective of the Mef begins to become clearer, and of a part of the government, which seems oriented to contain the costs of the reform in no more than 5 billion, including the 1.5 billion already recovered from the stop to cashback ( against the 8 needed to implement the current Orlando project). And, above all, the range of options and hypotheses of intervention in the field is enriched, which would now also include the extension for another two months (November and December) of the free fund for the tertiary sector and small businesses for which the generalized block of layoffs is expected until 31 October.
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Towards another 8/9 weeks for free
A sort of “bridge” in view of the new structure of the shock absorbers, which, if there were no hitches, would come into force from January 1, 2022, even if among the various hypotheses evaluated there was also that of a slip to July 1, 2022, precisely to contain the costs of the project. The “bridge” shock absorber until December would have the function of helping to manage a “gradual” exit from the freeze on layoffs, on the basis of what was done at the end of June when the freezing of documents ended (except for the textile-fashion sector) of withdrawal in the industry and construction sectors. Government technicians hypothesize another 8/9 weeks free for companies. Accompanied, it is the hope of the executive, by a sort of “commitment” on the part of the companies to use them all (together with the other income support tools in force) before proceeding with the layoffs. These 8/9 free weeks, according to initial estimates, would cost 400/500 million, net of possible late payment of the already authorized Covid Cassa on which a technical assessment would be underway.
The largest basin costs 1.2 billion a year
Starting from January 2022, as mentioned, the reform of the Cig would arrive, which according to the Orlando draft, for the very small realities (1-5 employees) provides 13 weeks of subsidy, for an initial period paid by the State, then these companies they would begin to pour gradually until reaching a regime of around 0.5. For companies with 6 to 15 employees, the weeks of Cig rise to 26, for companies over 15 it would remain essentially as it is (while continuing to pay high ordinary and additional contributions). The main unknown factor on the path of reform remains that of the financial resources that can actually be used. The picture will be clearer in mid-September when the outlines of the next maneuver will be sketched in via XX Settembre and at Palazzo Chigi, which will also have to include a new dowry for Naspi, for the Citizenship Income and for pension interventions (probably soft) for the post-Quota 100. And that could also include a lightening of the tax wedge, as well as triggering the extension to 2023 of the superbonus and fueling new interventions for the family and for the sectors affected by the pandemic, without considering the traditional chapter of the so-called non-deferrable expenses. The Ministry of Economy appears strongly intent on limiting the financial scope of the Orlando plan. And one of the chapters in the crosshairs seems to be precisely that of the duration of the use of general taxation for the extension of shock absorbers to workers in small companies (1-5 employees). An enlargement of the basin which in the current configuration of the reform draft would cost 1.2 billion a year.