In the week between 2 and 88 February, with the exception of Calabria, Sardinia and Sicily (on which the recalculations of the last week weigh), in all regions there is a percentage reduction in new cases, ranging from -9.4% in Basilicata to -50.4% in the Aosta Valley. But there are still 70 provinces with an incidence of more than 1,000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, distributed in all regions except Molise and Valle d’aosta. This is noted by the new independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation.
Stop the Green Pass for shops and banks: Italy also changes in spring
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Michele Bocci
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Alessandra Ziniti
“The new weekly cases-he explains Nino Cartabellotta, President of Gimbe-record for the second consecutive week a sharp decline: about 650 thousand, with a reduction of 27.9 percent compared to the previous week, and a 7-day moving average that drops from 121,741 cases on February 2 to 92,764 on February 8 (-23.8%). A figure partly due to the lower circulation of the virus, documented by the reduction in the positivity rate of swabs, partly due to the decline in swabs”.
Currently positive cases (1,927,800 vs 2,476,514) and people in home isolation (1,908,087 vs 2,455,092) also decrease. The slow decline in the burden of the Covid-19 pandemic on hospital facilities continues. In the first week of February there was a 7.7% reduction in hospitalizations with symptoms, which were 18,337 compared to 19,873 the previous week. There is also an 11.2% reduction in hospitalizations in intensive care, which were 1,376 compared to 1,549. They do not mention, however, a decrease in deaths, which were 2,587 (+0.2%), of which 251 referred to previous periods.
“We are in the descending phase of the fourth wave – says Cartabellotta – but the reduction in the circulation of the virus is overestimated by less testing activity, the drop in pressure on hospitals is slow and often irregular and the curve of deaths still does not hint at falling. In the face, however, of high vaccination coverage, booster included, and the arrival of spring, the data legitimize a cautious optimism aimed at the gradual easing of measures”.
However, the administrations of the first doses of vaccine are still holding back: they were 186,744 compared to 278,940 of the previous week, equal to -33.1%. In particular, in the 5-11 year range there were 77,985, with a clear decrease of -35.2% compared to the previous week. Despite the vaccination obligation and the reinforced green pass obligation in the workplace, among the over 50s the number of new vaccinated at the weekly level still drops, reaching 47,951, equal to -41.6% compared to the previous week. There is” a continuous decline ” even in the 12-19 and 20-49 age groups.
Covid, in 3 weeks infections halved “in March 10 thousand cases and hospitals emptied”
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Michele Bocci
85.4% of the population have received at least one dose of vaccine and 82% have completed the vaccination cycle, but 7.1 million people have not yet received even one dose. The coverage rate of third doses is, instead, at 83.5% but with clear regional differences: it goes from 77.5% of Sicily to 89% of Valle d’aosta.
In this framework of optimism, according to Cartabellotta justified only in part, given the huge numbers of the pandemic today in Italy, the undersecretary for Health Andrea Costa it provides for further reopening by the government. “Today the ordinance that provided for the closure of Discos will not be renewed, this means that from tomorrow they will reopen” said ad Agora on RaiTre. “Even in the stadiums there has been an increase in capacity” to 75%, ” and I think we can get to 100%. I think the Championship will end with full stadiums”.
The undersecretary believes that “already from the month of March we can foresee an easing of the green pass, gradual, starting perhaps obviously from outdoor places”, after which we could “extend the easing to other measures”. And he thinks it is “reasonable to think that the state of emergency will not be renewed”.
Faced with such rapid reopenings and the drop in testing and tracking brakes Alter Ricciardiprofessor of Hygiene at the Catholic University of Rome and scientific adviser to the minister of Health: “I have my doubts, because in fact this is not an influence. Influenza has only the modes of transmission, but it is much more contagious and more severe, resulting in a series of sequelae. There is no ‘long-flu’, while instead there is long covid, there are no such high mortality rates, there are not so many deaths per day. It’s a fundamentally different picture. We need vaccines, testing and tracking”.