The “May Day” holiday is approaching. Judging from the current air ticket booking data on various platforms, both domestic and international routes have seen a significant year-on-year increase in bookings. From the perspective of air ticket price changes, with the rapid increase in supply, the price of international air tickets during the “May Day” holiday fell year-on-year; the price of domestic air tickets increased year-on-year.
According to the data disclosed by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in the first quarter of this year, the demand for air passenger transportation recovered rapidly, and the scale of domestic passenger transportation recovered to about 90% before the epidemic, and the passenger transportation scale was equivalent to 80% of the same period in 2019.
Overall, the increase in travel popularity is expected to improve the performance of listed airlines. Industry insider Gao Peng told the “Securities Daily” reporter that the “May 1st” holiday and the summer sports market can affect the annual performance of listed airlines to a certain extent. Judging from the current situation, listed airlines are expected to turn losses this year.
Outbound ticket
Prices drop as orders surge
On April 18, a reporter from the “Securities Daily” learned from the Flight Steward App that as of April 18, international and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan air ticket orders for travel during the “May Day” holiday in 2023 have increased by more than 10 times year-on-year, and the average transaction price of air tickets is 4190 yuan, 54.65% lower than last year’s “May 1st” period.
According to the Flight Steward App, the most popular destinations for outbound travel during the May Day holiday are Hong Kong, China, Macau, China, Taipei, Seoul, Osaka, Bangkok, etc.
Behind the surge in orders and the drop in ticket prices is the increase in the supply of international flights. On April 18, Xu Qing, deputy director of the Transportation Department of the Civil Aviation Administration, said at a press conference that since the Civil Aviation Administration accepted applications from Chinese and foreign airlines to resume and increase international passenger flights on January 8, international passenger flights have maintained a steady increase. In particular, the summer and autumn flight season change in 2023 will further drive the accelerated recovery of international flights. Judging from the actual implementation of international passenger flights, the number of international passenger flights actually implemented last week (April 10-April 16) has reached 2,242 (each round trip is counted as 1 flight), which is the implementation of the “Class B and B Control” “4.7 times the previous week (January 2-January 8), it has recovered to 29.4% before the epidemic, and it has sailed to 59 countries, returning to 82% of the pre-epidemic.
Xu Qing said that in the next step, the Civil Aviation Administration will continue to review and approve the applications of Chinese and foreign airlines for new and resumed international flights in a timely manner, assist and promote the resolution of difficulties and problems encountered by airlines in the process of resuming international flights, and ensure the smooth and orderly recovery of international passenger flights.
From the perspective of domestic air ticket sales, according to the data from the “Qunar Platform”, as of April 12, the number of advance air ticket bookings for “May Day” in popular domestic cities has exceeded the same period in 2019, and the average price paid for air tickets has increased by 50% compared with 2019. According to data from the Flight Steward App, domestic air ticket orders during the May Day holiday in 2023 will increase by 812% year-on-year. .
Civil aviation in the next stage
Will continue to maintain a steady recovery trend
Signs of recovery in air passenger demand have already appeared in the first quarter of this year.
On April 18, Li Yong, deputy director of the Aviation Safety Office of the Civil Aviation Administration, said at a press conference that in the first quarter of 2023, the demand for air passenger transportation will recover rapidly, and the scale of domestic passenger transportation will return to about 90% before the epidemic. In the first quarter, the entire industry completed a total of 129 million passenger trips, a year-on-year increase of 68.9%. The passenger transport scale is equivalent to 80.0% of the same period in 2019, a significant increase of 51.0 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of 2022.
Li Yong said that in terms of route structure, domestic routes completed 126 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 66.6%, equivalent to 88.6% of the same period in 2019; international routes completed 2.242 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 717.0%, equivalent to 2019. 12.4%. With the continuous recovery of international passenger flights, in March, the passenger traffic volume of international routes has recovered to 18.1% of the same period before the epidemic.
Prior to this, a number of listed airlines announced the main operating data for March, and the three major state-owned airlines’ passenger capacity investment and passenger turnover in March both increased significantly year-on-year.
Li Yong said that it is expected that in the next stage, civil aviation will continue to maintain a steady recovery trend.
In this context, the performance of listed airlines is expected to usher in a turning point. According to the 2022 annual reports of relevant companies, the three major airlines lost a total of 108.667 billion yuan last year. Looking forward to 2023, many industry insiders told reporters that listed airlines are expected to turn losses this year.
Gao Peng told reporters that from the overall situation, the demand for domestic routes will still recover rapidly this year, and is expected to return to the level of 2019; however, it will still take time for the release of demand for international routes and the recovery of passenger travel confidence. During this period, how to improve the utilization rate of wide-body passenger aircraft is still an important challenge for listed airlines.
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