Exit quotas and inflation: here’s how to understand the puzzle of pensions

UDINE. Had it not been for the war in Ukraine, and the related economic emergency, it would have been one of the major issues on the government’s agenda this autumn. Given the moonlight, however, pensions and social security have been queued. Not only those of today, which in the case of the Fvg do not reach a thousand euros a month for one pensioner out of 4 and have to deal with the surge in inflation that erodes checks.

But also those of tomorrow, which are an even more serious emergency. The Dpef does not talk about it, but the issue remains hot, since at stake there are the retirement age, which is constantly increasing, and the amount of future allowances, threatened by contributions, the late access of young people to work and the precariousness.

THE SHARE THAT WILL COME

With regard to retirement age, the beginning of 2022 marked the passage from 100 to 102. If in 2021 it was possible to retire with 62 years of age and 38 contributions, from 1 January this year the door retirement age has narrowed, raising the minimum age requirement that gives access to early retirement to 64 years.

And from 2023, in the absence of extensions of the 102 quota, we would return to the hard and pure Fornero. That is to say, the 67 years foreseen for leaving with the old-age pension, which can only be anticipated in the presence of a contribution period of 42 years and 10 months for men or 41 and 10 months for women.

THE RETIREMENTS

Quota 100, according to the latest available data, updated as of August 31, 2021, had allowed a total of 341 thousand early exits nationwide. Considering a probable increase in expenditure, linked both to applications at the end of 2021 and to the disposal of pending practices, the final budget should amount to more than 400 thousand retirements in the three-year period 2019-2021.

Of which at least 8 thousand at the regional level. Compared to the retirement flows in the same three-year period, about 2.4 million exits nationwide and over 50 thousand in Fvg, it can be inferred that about one new retiree out of six has taken advantage of the 100 quota channel. 102 quota, much more restrictive, it is certainly recording much lower numbers.

LAST TRAM

Quota 102, however, represents the last tram (except for the rare cases of exit with the female option or social Ape) to leave the job with 38 years of contributions and before the age of 67. However, choosing to go up there has a cost, because the amount of the pension increases as the age and contributions paid increase.

But it is a more sustainable cost thanks to the mixed calculation system, which applies to all those who have contributions paid before 1996 and who can therefore enjoy a portion of the pension calculated with the salary method, more advantageous than the pure contribution.

A 64-year-old pensioner with a share of 102 and a current income of 30 thousand euros gross, equal to 24,300 euros net, would take home a net pension of 17,200 euros per year, about 71% of his last income as a worker (this assuming constant contributions and regular growth in career-related salaries).

TODAY AND TOMORROW

If quota 102 does not cause jumps for joy, in ten years it will be much worse: not only for the return to the aforementioned age (67 years) and seniority requirements (42 years and 10 months for men, 41 and 10 months for women ), but also because these will return to grow starting from 2027, with “shots” of 2 or 3 months every two years. With projections that for 2050 lead to an exit age of over 69 years for the old-age pension. And at the age of 45, the standard of contribution seniority. Not only.

The calculation criteria will also worsen, since the share of remuneration is destined to be zero for those who do not have contributions prior to 1996. Hence the average lower replacement rates of future pensions, which will guarantee incomes and lower in relation to corresponding income from work.

POOR PENSIONS

A further unknown factor is linked to the starting age for work, raised by school and university courses, to contractual precariousness and to the trend in life expectancy. If this starts to grow again, after the setback linked to Covid, the coefficients for calculating pensions will worsen, to ensure the balance of accounts over time. And the amount of future pensions will be destined to decrease, with the same contributions paid.

The average gross amount of 21,000 euros of the approximately 280,000 occupational pensions paid in the region today will be a mirage for many. Strengthening supplementary pensions, also through appropriate tax incentives, is one of the possible solutions. It being understood that investing in a supplementary pension is a luxury that many cannot afford.

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