THE APPRECIATION of businessmen regarding the profitability of export activity was -6.2% in the first quarter of this year, according to the Fedesarrollo Industrial Opinion Survey.
The latter means that the percentage of respondents who perceived an increase in profitability was considerably lower than those who considered a decrease. The balance sheet results represented a decrease of 29.8 points compared to the previous quarter (23.7%) and 9.3 points compared to the first quarter of 2022 (3.1%). Additionally, the balance of the profitability of the export activity in the first quarter of 2023 was consistent with the behavior of the exchange rate
In the first quarter of 2023, the balance on the value exported in dollars was -8.1%, which means that the percentage of respondents who had an increase in their exports was lower than those whose exports decreased. This result represents a decrease of 44.7 points compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 (36.6%) and of 22.8 points compared to the first quarter of 2022 (14.7%).
For its part, the balance of export orders was -15.6%, which represents a decrease of 34.4 points and a fall of 28.8 points compared to the immediately previous quarter (18.8%). and compared to the same quarter of 2022 (13.2%), respectively.
factors
According to the report, for the first quarter of 2023, the most favorable factors for export activity were the Vallejo Plan System (15.9%), Colombian information and marketing services (5.8%) and export procedures. in Colombia (5.7%).
On the other hand, production costs (-32.2%), internal transportation in Colombia (-19.6%), and international transportation (-13.2%) were identified as the most unfavorable factors for exports. In contrast to the immediately previous quarter, the factor that showed the greatest improvement was international transport, which increased by 12.6 points. On the other hand, the factor that recorded the greatest setback was the peso-dollar exchange rate, falling by 17.1 points.
For the period analyzed, the balance of exporters’ expectations regarding the performance of their activity in the next three months was -0.7%, which is equivalent to a decrease of 10.5 points compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. and a decrease of 17.1 points compared to the same time in 2022. In this question, 23.4% of respondents stated that their exports will increase in the next three months, while 24.1% believe that their exports will decrease , and the remaining 52.4% expect their exports to remain the same.
Trust
On the other hand, the Industrial Confidence Index (ICI) stood at -5.9% for April 2023. With this, the ICI presented a fall of 9.4 points compared to the previous month (ICI March 2023: 3.5 %) and a decrease of 16.2 points compared to the same month in 2022 (ICI April 2022: 10.3%). For its part, the quarterly moving average was 0.6%, which represents a drop of 3.2 points compared to the same indicator for the month of March 2023 (3.8%). The result of the ICI in April 2023 ranks as the lowest since November 2020 (-6.7%).
The ICI is made up of three components: stock level, current volume of orders and production expectations for the next three months. The results for April 2022, as well as March and April 2023
The negative monthly variation in industrial confidence in April is explained by production expectations for the next quarter that reflected less optimism, an item that decreased by 16.5 points (11.3% compared to 27.8% in March 2023). . Likewise, there was a decrease of 10.0 points in the current volume of orders (-24.7% compared to -14.7% in March 2023) and an increase of 1.7 points in the level of inventories (4.4% compared to 2.8% in March 2023).
In annual terms, the decrease in industrial confidence was mainly explained by the reduction of 21.7 points and 17.3 points in the current volume of orders and production expectations for the next quarter, respectively. Likewise, the annual variation was explained by the increase of 9.7 points in the level of inventories.