First the good news: In the past few hours, a few drops of rain have fallen in northern Germany – for example in some regions in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. However: “For farmers and the forest, the amounts are far too small,” said meteorologist Karsten pumpkin from the German weather service (DWD) the NDR.
Heavy showers possible today
By the evening, 5 to 10 liters of rain per square meter can fall over the interior of the country in the north, but especially in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and in some places even more than 20 liters. “It’s then about heavy showers,” said Pumpkin. It’s not like storms. There is still little hope of rain in the north on Saturday. Meteorologist Pumpkin does not have good news for eastern Western Pomerania and the western areas of Lower Saxony, however: rain is not expected there today or tomorrow.
Sunday and Monday hot – then muggy and thundery
Meteorologist Pumpkin predicts high temperatures of around 30 degrees for Sunday and Monday. “Moist humid air masses are coming towards us – they bring showers and thunderstorms.” On Tuesday, therefore, all regions are at risk from stormy rainfall. Heavier rain could fall for the rest of the week, but: “We are still far from the usual average of 60 liters per square meter in June.”
Soils very dry – there is no land rain
More than 20 days without rain – in Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein, among other places, this is harsh reality. The upper soil layers are now dry. For the weather expert Frank Böttcher, the effects of climate change are becoming increasingly apparent: from 1961 to 1990 there were 71 days with temperatures above 30 degrees. From 1991 to 2020, the number had already grown to 174. “We can also see that the dry days in northern Germany are much more frequent. In Hamburg alone we have six percent more dry days than 30 years ago,” says Böttcher. At the same time, there are also 16 percent more days with heavy rain of more than 15 liters per square meter. Both are treacherous for the soil – because the regular rainfall is missing.
What’s next? – Scenarios for the summer
Overall, weather expert Böttcher sees two possible scenarios for the summer: One is a renewed high pressure area over Europe with a four to six-week dry period. “That would aggravate the situation.” The other is a southwest weather situation with temperatures up to 35 degrees and violent thunderstorms. However, the long-awaited rain is not in sight for the time being.
Good prospects for the Hurricane Festival
For the big Hurricane Music Festival in Scheeßel in Lower Saxony this weekend, the weather forecast looks almost fantastic: not too hot, just a few clouds, but no rain.
That’s not always the case. Because the festival industry is also suffering from climate change: Heavy rain and storms ruin the concerts for organizers and visitors and leave them vulnerable to lightning and hail. But there are also comfort limits when it comes to temperatures: “Nobody needs scorching heat at a festival,” says wetter.com meteorologist Alexander König.