The alarm seems, at present, if not really returned, certainly less worrying. Italy will avoid gas rationing this winter and next, which should avoid a severe recession. An analysis by Oxford Economics has come to this conclusion.
At the end of winter, gas storages exceeding 30% of the total capacity
At the end of this winter, gas stocks will be well over 30% of total capacity – write the analysts of the British economic consultancy firm – and although the prospects for next winter are less positive, with lower gas stocks, beyond the 25% threshold, this “makes a severe recession scenario less likely”.
Quick adaptation of sources of supply
Despite the reduction of natural gas flows from Russia, the rapid adaptation of supply sources has reduced the impact on the total gas supply in 2022. Next year, however, we will see a more pronounced decline in supplies. But high prices, regulatory measures, increased energy efficiency and the use of other fuels should help contain gas demand.
The risks remain
The risks, however, remain, Oxford Economics also underlines. Indeed, the assumption is that flows from Russian pipelines continue intermittently, but Russia could interrupt them any day now. Furthermore, efficiency gains may be lower than expected, while a colder winter or a decline in non-gas electricity generation could lead to an increase in gas demand. This would make a negative scenario more likely.
For now, Italy is not at risk
For now, the report specifies, Italy enters the winter in “a secure position”, with gas storage equal to 92% of capacity at the beginning of December, thanks to the resilience of imports, down by only 2.5%. % in the first 11 months of the year and the drop in gas consumption which fell by 8.7% against -2% at the end of August. The use of gas by industry, in particular, is estimated to have fallen by 15% since the beginning of the year and by 20% in November. At the same time, electricity generation is back in line with trend.