Jakov Milatović and Milojko Spajić during a press conference of the party (photo Europe now )
After an electoral campaign with populist overtones, Montenegrin citizens are called to the polls to renew the parliament on Sunday 11 June. It is the third vote in a row in just nine months. The favored party is Europe now, the most likely prospect a coalition government
(Originally published by German wave 1 June 2023)
On June 11, the citizens of Montenegro will be called to vote for early general elections. With Sunday’s vote, a cycle of three electoral appointments in nine months will end. It is to be expected that the new picture that emerged from the two previous rounds with the triumph of the Evropa sad movement will be reconfirmed in the upcoming elections [Europa adesso, PES]which after administrations of October 2022 took over the reins of the capital Podgorica, and Jakov Milatović, one of the leaders of the PES, recently became the new president of Montenegro.
Of the fifteen lists presented for the 11 June elections, only half should be able to pass the threshold to enter parliament. Electoral polls favor the PES, led by Milojko Spajić, who aims to win a third of the votes, followed by the Zajedno coalition [Insieme] gathered around the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) which for a few months, later l’uscita di scena di Đukanovićè guidato da Danijel Živković.
The DPS dominated the Montenegrin political scene for over thirty years, until the general elections of August 2020, from which Đukanović’s party came out severely defeated, giving way to the emergence of a new political reality, further consolidated with the débâcle by Đukanović in the last presidential elections.
In third place, again according to the polls, should be the coalition formed by the Democrats of Aleksa Bečić and the URA movement of the current premier Dritan Abazović, followed by the alliance of pro-Serb parties Za budućnost Crne Gore (For the future of Montenegro, ZBCG) , led by Milan Knežević.
Does the DPS remain in opposition?
Political analyst Predrag Zenović explains that Montenegro is entering a new phase of multi-partyism, closer to the true meaning of the term, which implies the need to form coalition governments.
“PES is likely to become the backbone of a new coalition government. However, he will have to demonstrate that he is capable of completing the whole process and forming a stable executive. There is no doubt that the DPS will remain outside the new government structure, also because all the other political forces will certainly try to capitalize on their aversion to the party that has governed the country for thirty years”, explains Predrag Zenović.
Also Biljana Matijašević, journalist of the newspaper Newsspeaking of the possible post-election scenarios, believes that the most probable hypothesis is that of a coalition government made up of the PES, the Democratic-URA alliance and some national minority parties.
“Citizens are tired of the policies, carried out for decades now, which remain focused on identity and religious issues, therefore on what divides us. Public opinion polls also show this. Furthermore, they want to see new faces on the Montenegrin political scene, people who can be given the opportunity to do something to improve the quality of life, being keenly aware that living standards in Montenegro are well below the EU average,” says the Matijašević.
Opinion polls suggest that after the upcoming parliamentary elections the political forces that have so far dominated the scene, namely the DPS and the For the Future of Montenegro coalition, initially gathered around the Democratic Front (DF) – one of the victorious parties from the policies of 2020 [recentemente disciolto] – could end up in opposition.
The consequences of Đukanović’s departure from the scene
“Đukanović’s decision to leave, at least formally, the leadership of the DPS and his defeat in the presidential elections have further weakened the former president’s party. This dynamic, apparently, also had an impact on the DF, whose political work has always remained focused on the fight against the Đukanović regime”, Matijašević explains again, adding: “The now former Democratic Front has very little to offer to voters, having focused his electoral campaign mainly on the issue of Kosovo. Even the most fervent Serbian nationalists are now aware that Montenegro cannot in any way influence the situation in Kosovo”.
Matijašević believes that the DPS will achieve a worse result in Sunday’s elections than in the 2020 elections. plus the master father of the country. These disappointed voters will stay at home,” argues the journalist from News.
Analyst Predrag Zenović instead underlines that Đukanović for decades has played an important political and institutional role as a symbol of a “stabilocracy”, but also as a political figure that the West, since 1997, has always seen as a guarantor of security. “With the departure of Đukanović, the Western partners [del Montenegro] they will look for a new local political actor who enjoys popular legitimacy and who is willing to take an unequivocally pro-Western position. Đukanović was certainly the backbone of the DPS, but at the same time, by insisting on pursuing a policy centered on divisions and clashes of identity, he weakened the party, depriving it of the ability to coalesce. I believe that Đukanović’s resignation risks negatively affecting the result of the DPS in the upcoming elections and that only internal reforms can guarantee the party’s long-term survival,” says Predrag Zenović.
Western countries – which, according to Zenović, through the actions of soft power influence in a far from irrelevant way on the formation of power bodies in Montenegro – they still harbor a certain diffidence towards the pro-Serb parties, members of the former Democratic Front. “A possible coalition government that excludes the DPS and the DF will have to find new elements of cohesion if it wants to remain in office for the entire legislature and achieve great goals”, explains the political analyst.
The parties promise heaven and earth
For the first time in the history of independent Montenegro, the focus of the electoral campaign has shifted from identity issues to economic ones. The main parties are making big promises, announcing the country’s economic renaissance, an increase in salaries, pensions and social benefits, new major investments and infrastructure projects.
Predrag Zenović warns that the current electoral campaign is increasingly resembling a commercial competition seasoned with sensationalist promises. “Just as in the past we insisted on identity discourses, which proved to be particularly dangerous when they started from an exclusivist logic, so too today we insist on unfounded promises that risk pushing the Montenegrin state and society into a situation of uncertainty and crisis. To understand how realistic and believable certain projects actually are, we need to know not only what is being planned, but also how. Otherwise, the elections risk turning into a populist race and the citizens will pay the price, as usual”.
Biljana Matijašević agrees that the election campaign has taken on a populist dimension. “The parties continue to make promises, without considering how they will keep them. Evidently they will only think about it when they come to power. In any case, the PES is in a big advantage because its leaders, during the time they were ministers in the Krivokapić government, increased salaries, thus keeping one of the promises they made. The other parties have decided to follow the same path, promising an increase in salaries, pensions and social contributions. As regards the increase in the average salary, the market will take care of it, because the shortage of manpower, especially the seasonal one, will inevitably lead to an increase in wages. As for the other promises, the parties will have to ensure new resources. As far as I know, however, to date no one has presented a detailed financial plan”, explains the journalist.
We need a stable government
The European Union and the United States expect that after next Sunday’s vote in Podgorica a stable executive will finally be formed capable of continuing with internal reforms, thus also speeding up Montenegro’s European integration process.
“Economic stability and the closure of chapters 23 and 24 of the acquis communautaire should be the priority of the future government. I expect that, after the appointment of ministers, the executive will prove stable and that on issues of fundamental importance, such as the judiciary and electoral reform, it will be supported by two thirds of the parliament”, says Biljana Matijašević.
Predrag Zenović also believes that the new government must first of all commit itself to accelerating the process of accession of Montenegro to the EU, at the same time pursuing the reform of all segments of the public administration and a tenacious fight against corruption and organized crime.
“Montenegrin citizens have been waiting for decades for these processes to be completed. However, it seems to me that with the passage of time these commitments, these ‘Augian stables’ of our reality have ended up being increasingly neglected. The longer this negative trend lasts, the greater will be the responsibility of the new elites and of society as a whole”, concludes Zenović.
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