The world economy will exceed $ 100 trillion for the first time in 2022, two years ahead of forecasts. To do the math is the Center for Economics and Business Research, according to which China will snatch from the United States the scepter of the first economy in the world in 2030, 24 months behind the previous calculations. Meanwhile, global debt has also shot up to $ 226 trillion.
India towards third place
Next year will see India overtake France while in 2023 it will beat Germany, to become the third largest economy in the world in 2031, one year after estimates. For its part, Berlin will overtake Japan in 2033, while in the second half of 2030 the top ten of the economic powers should see the entry of Russia in 2036 and Indonesia in ninth place in 2034.
Italy will slide out of the top ten
Italy will maintain its eighth place in the standings in 2022. «Former ECB president Mario Draghi has successfully led the country in recent months. But it is not clear how long this period of relative political stability will continue ”, explains the Center for Economic and Business Research, citing the unknowns for the election of the President of the Republic. “In the next 15 years we expect a slight deterioration in Italy’s position” in the World Economic League Table: “It will drop from eighth place in 2021 to 13th in 2036”, calculates the study center.
With inflation, there is a risk of recession in 2023
The growth of the world economy is attributable to the stimuli given to cope with the pandemic and the recovery they have triggered. A recovery, however, accompanied by a jump in inflation which, if it proves persistent, risks causing a recession in 2023 or 2024, warns the research institute. High prices are now a widespread phenomenon globally, accentuated by bottlenecks in supply chains, to which has been added a less transient wage inflation.
Accelerate the withdrawal of stimuli
The recent gallop in prices is pushing central banks to put aside the concept of “temporary inflation” and accelerate the withdrawal of the stimuli put in place to save the economy from Covid. The Bank of England was the first of the central banks of the major economies to opt for a hike. The Fed instead announced an acceleration of the process of reducing asset purchases, which has led to a rate of 120 billion dollars a month since the start of Covid, effectively paving the way for a tightening of the cost of money in the first. mid 2022.