According to Camacol Bogotá and Cundinamarca and its analysis regarding the regulatory landscape of District Decree No. 555 of 2021 with a cutoff of the first quarter of 2023, there are a series of issues on which the District Administration must work to achieve the necessary land for the city.. It is necessary to remember that, although the Land Management Plan (POT) provided for 70 future regulations, the District Government reported from the beginning of 2022 that it would give priority to 10 of these.
Faced with this balance, the Guild sees the need for the Administration to work on the issuance of regulations for the development of the transfer of construction and development rights, as well as strategic actions, understanding that the legal vacuum left by these concepts is freezing the urban development of approximately 2,844.1 hectares of land, corresponding to land in sectors with activity area of Great Metropolitan Services that would be enabled with the development of the transfer of construction and development rights, and 7,431.41 hectares corresponding to the ground that would be activated under the guidelines and development of strategic actions.
housing challenges
Given this scenario, the Executive President of Camacol, Guillermo Herrera, stated that one of the challenges corresponds to the fact that adjustments are required to the different budget items of the sector.
“There are 52 thousand homes waiting for the disbursement of ‘Mi Casa Ya’. In total, there were 23,000 homes completed by September 2022 or before, plus 29,000 homes completed between October 2022 and March 2023. Valle, Atlántico, Bolívar, Cundinamarca, and Norte de Santander are the departments where the immediate demand for MCY is concentrated. Herrera said.
For his part, Edwin Chiriví, manager of Camacol Bogotá and Cundinamarca; explained that the housing market and construction activity have had a sharp contraction in recent months.
“The supply and demand for housing have had a significant reduction. The figures of the Department of Economic Studies and Information Camacol based on Urban Coordinate indicate that as of March of this year there were a total of 65,851 launches between Bogotá and Cundinamarca, which represents -21.8% compared to the previous year. Likewise, total sales were 71,484, representing -20.7% compared to 2022,” he said.
Under this premise, the Guild maintains that if this trend is not reversed, 2023 will close with 35% less activity in the region.
“At the current market rate, home sales could close with 45% less compared to 2022. Similar situation in Cundinamarca, a market in which the projection shows a 35% reduction in sales,” he explained.
Strategic Actions
María Mercedes Jaramillo, District Planning Secretary, said that the entity has adopted 10 partial plans, for a total of 71,730 enabled homes distributed among the Bavarian Triangle, Plaza Chicó, Mazda – Mavaia, La Marlene, Lucerna, El Carmen, Bosa 37, La Salle, M30 and Carton de Colombia.
“By the end of 2023, we hope to reach 20 partial plans and more than 100,000 homes enabled. Let us remember that within the POT in chapter 3 the regulation on Eco-urbanism and Sustainable Construction is established, which establishes that the District Administration within the 12 months following the entry into force of this Plan, through the District Departments of Planning, Environment and Habitat, will adopt by decree the regulation of the provisions of Eco-urbanism and Sustainable Construction, for which it will take into account energy efficiency, water efficiency, well-being, urban greening, waste, materials, urban regulations applicable to the Main Ecological Structure, Mechanism, Report and Verification; and incentives, ”he concluded.
Candidates for Mayor
Concern over the uncertainty that has recently arisen over the resources of the ‘Mi Casa Ya’ program was one of the issues on which there was unanimity among the seven pre-candidates who participated in the discussion space: Lucía Bastidas, Juan Daniel Oviedo, Carlos Alberto Carrillo, Rodrigo Lara, Maria Fernanda Rojas; Martin Rivera and Diego Molano. The space was moderated by the director of the newspaper Portafolio, Francisco Miranda.
Part of the discussion revolved around the recent slowdown in housing sales in Bogotá, due to the opportunities that families are losing in order to have their own home, but also because in the medium term the contribution to employment will be affected, which today it exceeds 216 thousand jobs in the capital alone, and also the demand for inputs that drives more than 54% of industrial activities.
For pre-candidates such as Lucía Bastidas, María Fernanda Rojas, Diego Molano and Juan Daniel Oviedo, Bogotá must strengthen its own subsidy policy to ensure families’ access to decent housing. Carlos Carrillo, for his part, expressed that it is hand in hand with small and medium-sized companies that a public housing program is achieved, which bets on both the qualitative and quantitative deficit. For his part, Rodrigo Lara expressed the need to review interest rates and strengthen mortgage credit for homes, in which Rojas also agreed.
According to the aspirants to the Mayor’s Office, revisions must be made to the Land Management Plan (POT) decreed by the current administration. This for some must be done by exceptional modification and for others by way of regulation; so that it is given the legitimacy that, according to the majority, the POT did not have in the formulation process.
According to the most recent figures published by Coordenada Urbana®, where the behavior of the leading indicators of building activity in the first quarter of the year is observed, home sales in Bogotá and Cundinamarca contracted -57% compared to the same period in 2022. Regarding the commercialization of housing (year to March) in the country’s capital, the sale of 6,720 units was registered, while in Cundinamarca there were 3,597 units. In both cases there are negative variations of 56% and 59%, respectively.
sales in first quarter
When reviewing the quarterly indicator, in the case of Bogotá, home sales went from 15,266 in the first quarter of 2022 to 6,720 in the first quarter of 2023. Of these units, 4,839 (72%) are in the segment of interest housing (VIS), which registered a contraction of 55%. In Cundinamarca, the participation of the VIS in housing sales was 2,409 units (67%), registering a negative variation of 62% compared to the same period of the previous year.
“This strong dynamic of contraction is mainly explained by the current interest rate conditions. It is expected that, in perspective, the recent announcements by the National Government about the reactivation of the ‘Mi Casa Ya’ Program and the planned addition of new resources will contribute to significantly reversing this trend. Less sales means fewer starts of work, and therefore, the sector’s ability to generate employment and the demand for inputs from half of the regional economy that supplies the works can be put at risk,” explained Edwin Chiriví, manager of Camacol Bogota and Cundinamarca.
In terms of employment, they recorded that the number of people who were employed in the building construction sector in Bogotá and Cundinamarca is 370,623, who are working on around 867 projects in the region: 216,167 in Bogotá and 154,456 in Cundinamarca.
Currently, 529 projects are being executed in Bogotá, mainly located in the towns of Usaquén, Chapinero, Suba and Fontibón, which translates into 6.5 million square meters in execution. In Cundinamarca, 338 projects are registered in execution, which means approximately 4.6 million square meters in the department.
POT analysis